In this file:

 

·         USDA Data Seen as Bearish for Corn Market

Soybean numbers are taken as neutral to friendly.

 

·         USDA raises U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks estimates

… USDA raised its domestic ending stocks projections for corn and wheat, while tightening the balance sheet for soybeans slightly…

 

·         ASF Causes Train Wreck in Slow Motion in Soybean Market

… soybean meal demand in the country is drastically lower…

 

·         USDA crop progress: Corn plantings at 2%

USDA also updated spring wheat planting progress, winter wheat conditions and more.

 

·         House Ag Leader Backs One-Time Aid for Flooded Grain

... “I think we can do a one-time thing to try to help people with that,” House Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson told the North American Agricultural Journalists meeting at the Capitol...

 

 

 

USDA Data Seen as Bearish for Corn Market

Soybean numbers are taken as neutral to friendly.

 

By Mike McGinnis, Successful Farming

Agriculture.com - 4/9/2019

 

DES MOINES, Iowa — The U.S. corn pile continues to grow, while soybean stocks drop slightly, according to the USDA.

 

As a result, the CME Group farm markets dropped initially. However, corn has turned positive, soybeans are unchanged, and wheat prices are already off their daily bottom.

 

At midsession, the May futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.60 3/4. July futures are 1¢ higher at $3.69.

 

May soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $8.97 3/4. July soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $9.10 3/4.

 

May wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.61 1/4.

 

May soymeal futures are $0.10 short ton lower at $309.10. May soy oil futures are 0.11 higher at 28.994¢ per pound.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points lower.

 

U.S. 2018/19 Grain Ending Stocks ...

 

USDA 2018/19 World Grain Ending Stocks ...

 

USDA 2018/19 World Crop Production  ...

 

Trade Response

 

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity’s managing director, says that the stocks totals on corn were the highlight (or lowlight) with 200 million bushels added to the ending stocks.

 

“And USDA accounted for it via all 3 usage categories, (75 mil reduction in feed), (75 mil/bu reduction in exports) and 50 million bushel reduction in corn used for ethanol,” Ward says.

 

Ward added, “No one can argue the ethanol or export numbers, as they have been well documented. We are lagging in both categories. But, the feed usage lowering again is in our view a reflection of a larger crop in 2018 than previously reported, not less feed fed to more livestock units than a year ago (or near record livestock units).”

 

So, at face value it is a bearish corn report with stocks swelling over 2.0 billion bushels at 2.035 bil/bu, Ward says.

 

“We are, however, below a year ago in corn supply by 105 mil/bu and we still have 5 months of usage left to account for, and the entire U.S. growing season.

Another point to make though, is our competition’s crop in South America is getting larger, with increases reported in both the Brazilian corn crop and the Argentine corn crop (+2.5 MMT in total),” Ward says.

 

The USDA’s wheat and soybean numbers are easily explained, Ward says.

 

“In soybeans, we chipped 5 mil/bu off carryout down to 895 million bushels (imports decreased by 3 million and seed increased by 2 mil/bu for the total of 5 mil/bu),” Ward says...

 

more

https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-data-seen-as-bearish-for-corn-market

 

 

USDA raises U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks estimates

 

By John Perkins, Brownfield

April 9, 2019

 

The USDA raised its domestic ending stocks projections for corn and wheat, while tightening the balance sheet for soybeans slightly.

 

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are now seen at 2.035 billion bushels, up 200 million from March, because of reduced demand expectations for exports, ethanol, and feed use. Wheat is pegged at 1.087 billion bushels, an increase of more than 30 million on the month, primarily on a lower export demand estimate. Soybeans are currently expected to end the marketing year at 895 million bushels, 5 million lower than last month, with a lower import guess cancelling out a higher seed use figure, but exports were steady.

 

Globally, the USDA raised corn production and export estimates for Argentina and Brazil, while leaving Argentina’s bean crop unchanged and increasing the projection for Brazil. China’s soybean import estimate was steady with March.

 

The current U.S. marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat, the end of August for corn and soybeans, and the end of September for soybean products.

 

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand numbers is out May 10th.

 

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

 

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 1.087 billion bushels, compared to 1.055 billion in March and 1.099 billion for 2017/18. USDA lowered seed use 1 million to 62 million bushels and reduced feed & residual use 10 million bushels to 70 million for domestic use of 1.097 billion bushels, while cutting exports 20 million bushels to 945 million, leaving total use at 2.042 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $5.15 to $5.25 per bushel, compared to $5.10 to $5.20 a month ago and $4.72 in the previous marketing year.

 

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 2.035 billion bushels, compared to 1.835 billion last month and 2.140 billion last marketing year. Feed & residual use was lowered 75 million bushels to 5.3 billion and ethanol was reduced another 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, putting domestic use at 12.265 billion bushels, and exports were trimmed by 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion, for total use of 14.565 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.40 to $3.70 per bushel, compared to $3.35 to $3.75 in March and $3.36 for 2017/18.

 

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, compared to...

 

more

https://brownfieldagnews.com/news/usda-raises-u-s-corn-wheat-ending-stocks-estimates-2/

 

 

ASF Causes Train Wreck in Slow Motion in Soybean Market

 

By Jennifer Shike, Farm Journal's Pork, Editor

via AgWeb - Apr 9, 2019

 

The April 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report came in a little friendlier than some of the more bearish estimates INTL FCStone Financial, Inc., expected.

 

USDA barely touched the soybean balance sheet and did not make any changes to their export estimates reflecting Chinese demand, says Nick Buyse of INTL FCStone Financial, Inc. USDA’s Ag Forum estimates for the 2019-2020 new crop projects soybean acres about 5 million lower from last year at 84.6 million acres.

 

Buyse says the Ag Forum estimates for soybean exports next year at 2.025 billion bushels is extremely optimistic.

 

“This completely ignores the demand destruction taking place in China today with the African swine fever (ASF) epidemic devastating their hog herd,” he adds.

 

He believes the evidence is clear when you look at the sharply negative soybean crushing margins in China. (see chart) This would indicate soybean meal demand in the country is drastically lower.

 

In one of the most intensive hog production regions in China, Shandong, our colleagues are estimating feed demand is down by a shocking 50%. It’s short-sighted to think that there’s only been one case of ASF made public by Chinese officials in the Shandong region,” he says.

 

He easily sees a 2 billion bu. carryout in soybeans for the ’19-‘20 new crop as being a possibility.

 

“The reality is this soybean market is a train wreck in slow motion,” Buyse says. “Our Shanghai colleagues are saying Chinese hog farmers are killing more sows to prevent ASF from spreading. They are hanging onto the existing piglets and attempting to fatten them 30% to 50% more than normal to get as much pork off their carcasses as possible.”

 

If they are killing off the sows, Buyse says, that will be to their long-term detriment. FCStone expects China’s herd to take at least four to seven years to recover back to normal, and that may be optimistic...

 

more, including chart

https://www.agweb.com/article/asf-causes-train-wreck-in-slow-motion-in-soybean-market/

 

 

USDA crop progress: Corn plantings at 2%

USDA also updated spring wheat planting progress, winter wheat conditions and more.

 

Ben Potter, FarmProgress

Apr 08, 2019

 

Corn planting progress has reached 2%, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report released Monday afternoon. That was in line with analyst expectations and the prior five-year average, with Texas accounting for much of the advancement so far, says Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

 

“Corn planting is off to a little bit of a slow start, which was in line with my expectation due largely to early seeding in Texas, which passed the halfway point last week,” he notes. “Spring wheat seeding also came in a bit lower than expected, though it’s still fairly early.”

 

USDA has only marked corn planting progress for six of the top 18 production states so far, including Texas (53%), Tennessee (8%), North Carolina (5%), Missouri (2%), Kansas (2%) and Iowa (2%). With much warmer weather for much of the central U.S. for the next several days, that progress will certainly make big strides in the coming weeks. However, rampant flooding in some areas will keep progress there relatively suppressed for now...

 

more, including chart, map

https://www.farmprogress.com/usda/usda-crop-progress-corn-plantings-2

 

 

House Ag Leader Backs One-Time Aid for Flooded Grain

 

By Chuck Abbott, Successful Farming

Agriculture.com - 4/10/2019

 

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said farmers ought to be considered for federal compensation for grain lost in flooded bins this spring. Perdue gave conditional support to compensation at nearly the same time the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee called for a one-time grain payment to flooded operators.

 

Insurance policies often cover grain bins and associated equipment such as augers to move the grain, but not the contents. The USDA says none of its disaster programs address flood damage to stored grain. Farmers are storing larger-than-usual amounts of grain on the farm because of a series of bumper corn and soybean crops and low commodity prices exacerbated by trade war.

 

“I think we can do a one-time thing to to try to help people with that,” House Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson told the North American Agricultural Journalists meeting at the Capitol. The Minnesota Democrat said the 2018 farm law and USDA disaster programs cover most eventualities but not stored grain, which cannot be sold for food use if contaminated by flooding because of the risk of mold and fungus. “But one thing that should come in here is you could have bought insurance. So this is something that is going to come up…” Disaster bills often require growers to buy crop insurance if they are compensated for crop losses.

 

Also on Capitol Hill, Perdue likened flooded grain bins to inundated grain fields. “If it’d been flooded prior to harvest, would we have compensated it? Yes. Just because its in the bin, does that make it different? They haven’t marketed that. I think that’s certainly something we should consider.”

 

Congress is scheduled to recess for two weeks on Friday, leaving disaster aid up in the air...

 

more

https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/house-ag-leader-backs-one-time-aid-for-flooded-grain