In this file:
· Australia: Global pork prices fly as African swine fever fells pigs in China
· Canada: Hog Markets Remain Volatile
Global pork prices fly as African swine fever fells pigs in China
By Deirdre Hipwell, The Times (Australia)
via The Australian - April 9, 2019
The price of pork is likely to rise worldwide after African swine fever took a heavy toll on livestock in China.
Since last year, China, which produces half the world’s pork, has reported about 115 outbreaks of the fever to the World Organisation for Animal Health.
The outbreaks cover all commercially significant swine-producing regions and by the end of this year China’s total swine inventory could fall by as much as 13 per cent to 374 million head, with its pork production potentially falling by 5 per cent to 51.4 million tonnes.
The accelerating spread of the fever in China could increase global pig prices for a prolonged period.
Analysts at Peel Hunt said in a note yesterday that China was reporting that 19 per cent of its breeding herd had been slaughtered as a result of the outbreak, and added: “This is enormous and is almost certainly an underestimate.
“This is resulting in increasing pig prices in China — up 37 per cent in March — as well as a sharp increase in imports, which will result in higher pig prices elsewhere. US hog futures have risen by close to 50 per cent, despite a 2 per cent increase in the sow herd. This is driven by expectations that the reduction in production in China in 2019 will be more than the entire US production.”
Peel Hunt said that it was “a matter of time” before pork prices began to rise in Europe...
Hog Markets Remain Volatile
by Cory Knutt, High River Online (Canada)
09 April 2019
The hog markets remain extremely volatile, however prices do look favourable for Canadian hog producers.
That according to Tyler Fulton, Director of Risk Management with Hams Marketing Services.
"The current forward prices represent excellent profitability for producers with some summer months probably approaching $250 per pig as a price," he said. "I say profitability because this is in the context of feed ingredient prices that are generally on the lower end of historical levels."
Fulton expects U.S. cash prices to move higher over the next couple of months. He notes prices could rise another 20 to 25 per cent over the next two months as hog supplies start to shrink.
Speculation about pork exports to China and other Asian countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia (which broke with African swine fever about two weeks ago), is having a major impact on the markets.
"The potential for great export sales from the United States and Canada really can't be understated," added Fulton...