In this file:
· Reuters: China reports new African swine fever outbreak in Xinjiang
· Xinhua: African swine fever "under effective control" in China: agriculture minister
· CNBC: Killer hog disease now a ‘dire situation’ in China that could lead to higher global prices
China reports new African swine fever outbreak in Xinjiang
via Taipei Times - Apr 10, 2019
China on Monday said that it had confirmed a new outbreak of African swine fever in the Xinjiang region, as the highly contagious disease spreads through the world’s largest hog herd.
The outbreak in the northwestern autonomous region’s Yecheng County killed 39 animals on a farm of 341 pigs, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement on its Web site.
China has reported more than 110 cases of the incurable disease since it was first detected in the country in early August last year.
The nation is the world’s biggest hog producer and top importer of soybeans.
In Vietnam, the virus has reached 23 provinces and cities, while about 10 percent of the herd in Mongolia has perished or been destroyed since January.
Thailand is keeping a close vigil after cases were reported in neighboring Cambodia.
Shrinking hog herds and heavy economic losses for farmers could scar the soybean business for years to come. An outbreak of influenza A virus subtype H5N1, commonly known as bird flu, in China’s northeast only adds to their plight.
Supply and demand for hogs is balanced short term, but supply is going to tighten and that is set to continue for a long time, the Shandong Province Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau said.
Farmers are selling pigs at a faster pace and not replenishing stocks, it said.
The country has more than 400 million pigs and pork is the principal source of dietary protein.
China’s soymeal demand might drop more than 5 percent to 66 million tonnes this year, the first contraction after 11 years of growth, China National Grain and Oils Information Center said.
The situation could worsen as the virus spreads to uninfected provinces in countries such as Vietnam, which has culled more than 73,000 infected pigs since the disease was first found in early February, newspaper Tien Phong reported, citing data from the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s Animal Health Department.
The Vietnamese government has announced preventive and control measures to protect a pig population that totals almost 30 million.
Some nations are on high alert.
African swine fever "under effective control" in China: agriculture minister
Source: Xinhua (China) | Editor: yan
BEIJING, April 9 (Xinhua) -- China's African swine fever situation is now "under effective control" and growth of new cases is gradually slowing down, the country's agriculture minister said Tuesday.
A total of 122 cases of African swine fever had been reported by 30 provincial-level regions by Monday. Of the cases, 108 had ended blocks of the infected regions, Han Changfu, minister of agriculture and rural affairs, said while giving remarks at an international seminar in Beijing.
Production of live pigs and pork supply are generally stable, Han added.
China still faces a grave situation...
Killer hog disease now a ‘dire situation’ in China that could lead to higher global prices
As African swine fever continues to ravage China’s hog herd, the impact may be far worse than Beijing is conceding, according to experts.
China’s agricultural minister said this week that African swine fever is now “under effective control” and the number of cases is slowing down.
But some believe the killer disease is having a greater impact and could lead to significant shortages of China’s staple meat, driving up global prices of protein.
China consumes about 28% of the world’s meat, including 49% of pork, so it’s a significant factor in the world market.
Jeff Daniels, CNBC
Apr 10, 2019
As African swine fever continues to ravage China’s hog herd, the impact may be far worse than Beijing is conceding. The crisis could lead to significant shortages of the country’s staple meat and drive up global prices of protein, experts said. The situation also increasing fear among U.S. pork producers of spreading contagion.
The June lean hog futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is up more than 50% in the past month as speculators wager that China’s outbreak and apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks will increase U.S. pork demand. China consumes about 28% of the world’s meat, including 49% of pork, so it’s a significant factor in the world market.
“Assuming China’s tariffs on U.S. pork are reduced in the not-so-distant future, U.S. pork exports could pick up considerably,” according to David Maloni, executive vice president of analytics at ArrowStream, a Chicago commodity researcher for the restaurant industry. He also wrote in a newsletter Tuesday, “Longer term we are concerned that U.S. chicken and beef exports could rise as well.”
On Tuesday, China’s agricultural minister said African swine fever is now “under effective control” and the number of cases is slowing down. The government official also was quoted by state media as insisting the production of live pigs and pork supplies is generally stable.
But not everyone agrees with that assessment and some suggest Beijing maybe under reporting the severity of the killer disease’s impact on pork supplies, to save face or perhaps maintain a position of strength during negotiations to resolve the U.S.-China trade war.
“What our people there in China find is a far different story where the disease is continuing to spread,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with INTL FCStone in Kansas City, Mo. “China just doesn’t want the rest of the world to know what the situation is.”
The economist termed it “a very dire situation” and estimates hog feeding in China has fallen at least 40% and in some larger swine producing regions plummeted more than 50% in response to the disease. He said the decline is directly attributable to infected pigs dying and producers afraid of the disease and liquidating herds to salvage some value.
“If we’re down 40%, that would mean on an annualized basis that they’ve lost more pork production capacity than what we produce in all of North and South America together on an annual basis,” said Suderman.
At least 122 cases of African swine fever have been reported in China in both its domestic pigs and wild boars since the first case was confirmed last August and the incurable disease has spread to other parts of Asia, including Vietnam where it accounts for about three-quarters of the total meat diet.
There is fear the highly contagious and deadly virus could spread beyond Asia and reach the U.S.
On Wednesday, the National Pork Producers Council announced it would cancel its 2019 World Pork Expo in Des Moines...
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