[Weds]: China's ag minister stated that African swine fever situation is under control and that new cases of the disease are slowing, Allendale reported. The comments fueled limit down trade yesterday. However, South Africa has detected an outbreak of African swine fever… The National Pork Producers Council's board of directors today announced its decision to cancel World Pork Expo 2019 out of an abundance of caution as ASF continues to spread… [Tues]: National carcass base up 12 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 38 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon dropped 18 cents… Pork values have been increasing nicely over the past week, reports Stewart-Peterson. This should boost packer margins and allow the cash index to resume trending upward. May traders are growing impatient with the lack of pork sales to China and Mexico…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Wed 4/10/2019 8:41 AM

 

Lean hogs - USDA cut its 2019 pork production forecast by 105 million pounds. Now at 27.325 billion, it is 3.8% over last year, according to Allendale. For the current Q2 they forecast a 3.6% year over year increase.

 

"Some correction action is clearly a possibility but it is likely a correction, not a change in trend and the fundamentals look to turn more and more bullish if China pig prices trend higher and China begins a much more aggressive import campaign," The Hightower Report said.

 

World Pork Expo canceled on ASF risk

 

China's ag minister stated that African swine fever situation is under control and that new cases of the disease are slowing, Allendale reported. The comments fueled limit down trade yesterday. However, South Africa has detected an outbreak of African swine fever, the Paris-based World Organisation for Animal Health said on Wednesday, citing the South African agriculture ministry.

 

The National Pork Producers Council's board of directors today announced its decision to cancel World Pork Expo 2019 out of an abundance of caution as ASF continues to spread, the group said in a news release. World Pork Expo is held each June at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines.

 

Tue 4/9/2019 4:37 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:

 

National carcass base up 12 cents to $75.51/cwt.

National live up $1.43 to $59.12.

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 38 cents to $75.97.

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon dropped 18 cents to $83.11/cwt.

 

Pork values have been increasing nicely over the past week, reports Stewart-Peterson. This should boost packer margins and allow the cash index to resume trending upward. May traders are growing impatient with the lack of pork sales to China and Mexico.

 

The Hightower Report says hog prices are down 1.1 percent so far this week, while remaining up 14.4 percent for the year and up 50.7 percent from a year ago. Pork cutout values were down slightly at midday Tuesday.

 

Markets shrug off blizzard forecast

 

The potential for a large winter storm through parts of Nebraska and South Dakota is having little impact on the cattle markets, Stewart-Peterson reported. Forecasts range from 6 to 18 inches of snow later this week. Stewart-Peterson says Kansas through Texas should remain dry, with cattle maintaining weight in the feedlot.

 

The hog market has shifted gears from anticipation to “wait and see” when it comes to trade with China, says The Hightower Report. Traders are waiting to see actual trade numbers with China while waiting for Chinese hog prices to increase.

 

Choppy trade continues on U.S. stock, Brazil numbers

 

Corn futures appear to be in the “sell the rumor, buy the fact” pattern, according to Barchart. The USDA’s monthly report added 200 mbu to the 2018-19 ending stocks, projecting at 2.035 mbu. All this comes while the three major demand categories saw reductions in trade.

 

Soybean prices traded both sides of unchanged today after USDA’s Supply & Demand report was released. The report was considered neutral for beans, The Hightower Report says, with ending stocks coming in at 895 million bushels compared to average estimates of 912 million bushels.

 

Corn

 

July corn traded at a fresh contract low today, going as low as $3.64 per bushel before rallying slightly this afternoon. The USDA’s Supply & Demand report was considered bearish for corn, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Ending corn stocks came in at 2.035 billion bushels, up slightly from pre-report estimates. Barchart says forecasts of wet and snowy weather across some of the Midwest are also supportive to higher corn prices.

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean futures traded lower Tuesday, with nearby meal futures up 80 cents per ton, according to Barchart. USDA’s Brazil production estimate was raised by 0.5 MMT to 117 MMT on a higher average yield.

 

The Hightower Report says with the market news and slowing exports, the market “should continue to see a choppy two-sided trade while waiting for further developments.”

 

Wheat

 

Wheat futures began Tuesday under pressure from improving winter wheat production. USDA’s Supply & Demand report was considered bearish, according to The Hightower Report, with ending stocks slightly higher than expected.

 

This week’s USDA Crop Progress report indicated that just 1 percent of the spring wheat crop was planted as of April 7, below the 5 percent average, says Barchart.

 

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