Analysts offer price predictions
Jeannine Otto, AgriNews Publications (IL)
Apr 8, 2019
DES MOINES, Iowa — Three livestock market analysts offered their thoughts and price predictions for the U.S. hog market over the rest of 2019.
The analysts spoke after the release of the second quarter U.S. Department of Agriculture hogs and pigs report, in a call sponsored by the National Pork Board and Pork Checkoff.
All of the experts said that U.S. pork exports should see sizeable increases for 2019, due to the ongoing African swine fever epidemic among the hog herd in China.
Kevin Grier, president
Kevin Grier Consulting
Grier said he expects a boost in exports, as well as premiums due to pork scarcity with the ongoing ASF situation in China, to fuel prices.
“I have exports in the next four quarters up by 25% to 30%. That sounds like a lot. Exports have been 20% to 25% of U.S. production and my forecasts of 25% growth really only amount to 25% to 30% of U.S. production,” Grier said.
His price predictions, using Lean Hog Basis, price per hundredweight:
Second quarter — $88.
Third quarter — $98-$100.
Fourth quarter — $88.
Kevin Bos, president
Bos, too, has a positive outlook when it comes to U.S. pork exports going forward. He said he believes wholesale demand will drive prices but only at the front end of the next few months, not through the rest of the year.
“I have some pretty generous export projections included in the price forecasts, a 10% year-over-year increase in total pork exports in the second quarter and then a 31% increase in total U.S. pork exports in the third and fourth quarters,” Bos said.
His price predictions, using CME Lean Hog Index, price per hundredweight:
Second quarter — $81.
Third quarter — $82.
Fourth quarter — $70.
John Nalivka, president