In this file:


         African swine fever has spread to Tibet

Spread of African swine fever to Tibet leaves only Hainan as last province of China not to report outbreak


         Graphics: The real situation of African swine fever in China

         African swine fever epidemic in China weighs on U.S. agriculture industry 



African swine fever has spread to Tibet

Spread of African swine fever to Tibet leaves only Hainan as last province of China not to report outbreak


By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News



TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) on Sunday (April 7) announced that African swine fever (ASF) has spread to Tibet, leaving only Hainan as the only province or autonomous region in China that has yet to report an outbreak of the virus.


The ministry late Sunday announced that the China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center has confirmed an outbreak of ASF in Bayi District of Nyingchi City, which is in southeastern Tibet, near the border with India. A total of 55 pigs have been reported as dying from the disease in the area thus far.


After the outbreak was confirmed, the local government has blocked off the area, culled infected hogs, and carried out disinfection measures. Live pigs and pork products have been banned from being transported into or out of the infected zone.


The latest outbreak in China came scarcely three days after the disease had been reported on April 4 in Xinjiang. Since the first case of ASF was reported on Aug. 3, 2018 in Shenyang in Liaoning Province, the disease has spread like wildfire across China.


Now, only the province of Hainan and the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau have yet to report an outbreak of ASF. The epidemic...





Graphics: The real situation of African swine fever in China


By Hu Yiwei, CGTN



With northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region confirming its first case of African swine fever (ASF) on Thursday, the highly contagious disease has spread to 29 provincial regions in China within months.


ASF is deadly to hogs and poses a huge threat to a country's pig industry and related sectors. China, home to the world's largest hog herd, reported its first case of African swine fever in the northeastern province of Liaoning last August.


On the Chinese mainland, only Hainan and Tibet Autonomous Region have not suffered ASF outbreaks.


How ASF affects China


The disease reduced the population and production capacity of pork in China, who is the world's biggest consumer and producer of pork.


China has culled around a million pigs so far. Since there is no vaccine nor treatment available for the disease, once the virus has been detected on a pig farm, the entire population must be killed.


Pork prices in China might thus see a big jump this year, especially in the fourth quarter, according to Yang Hanchun, a professor at China Agricultural University.


Rising pork prices could push up consumer prices in 2019 as well since pork has the biggest weighting in the food category of the CPI, which is the primary driver of the overall index.


How China responds


How soon can China eliminate ASF?


more, including charts, infographics, map



African swine fever epidemic in China weighs on U.S. agriculture industry


By Jessie Higgins, UPI

Apr 8, 2019


EVANSVILLE, Ind., April 8 (UPI) -- The rapid spread of African swine fever through China has left American farmers uncertain about the future of agricultural trade between the two countries, even after the trade war ends.


China has culled some 1 million hogs since the epidemic began in September, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. But that has done little to slow the spread of the disease, and experts estimate it will claim many millions more of the animals in the coming years.


"It could be as much as 30 percent of China's herd impacted," said Michael Nepveux, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.


Such a dramatic reduction in China's hog population would send shock waves through international agricultural markets, Nepveux said.


China is the most populated country on earth and pork is its main protein. Losing domestic herds would force the country to import substantially more pork or other protein to feed its people. At the same time, with fewer animals to feed, the demand for imported soybeans -- which are used mainly as meal to feed hogs and other livestock -- could plummet.


"There's no question there is going to be a reduced demand" for soy, said Tim Bardole, an Iowa soybean grower and president-elect of the Iowa Soybean Association. "There are a wide range of estimates, but it will be a pretty substantial reduction."


China already is importing more pork this spring, Nepveux said. And some of those sales have gone to American producers. However, it is unclear if that will translate into substantial increases in the coming years.


China currently has a 62 percent tariff on American pork, which was placed as retaliation for tariffs the Trump administration levied on Chinese goods last year. As long as that tariffs remain, it's unlikely U.S. companies will have much access to the Chinese market, said Jim Monroe, a spokesman for the National Pork Producers Council.


"We have shipped a significant percentage of our pork to China in the past," Monroe said. "I can't speculate on how exports are going to flow to China, but I can say that they will be looking for a reliable source of pork. And we have the best in the world."


Meanwhile, a similar tariff remains on American soybeans, as part of the trade war.


Before the trade dispute began, China bought roughly 30 percent of all the soybeans grown in the U.S. The tariff led to a sharp reduction in trade, which cost American soy growers substantially this year, Bardole said.


Growers have pinned their hopes on restoration of normal trade between the two nations, in a number of cases to save their livelihoods. But the swine fever epidemic has many worried that their ordeal will continue even after trading is restored, said Bardole, who recently visited with soy importers in China.


"One of the disturbing things is the impact they've seen in meal demand now," Bardole said. "And it's not over. Everyone we talked to [in China] thinks it's going to get worse before it gets better."


Guessing exactly how much of an impact the disease will have on Chinese -- and world -- markets is difficult, particularly because it is unlikely China is accurately reporting the number of infected animals, Nepveux said.


What is clear is that African swine fever has spread to all of China's major pork-producing provinces. And it shows no signs of slowing...