[Mon]: … “The hog market continues to find strong buying support over fears of a sharp drop in Chinese production and the possibility that their imports will surge,” The Hightower Report said. However, the short term supply is still “ample,” they said, and there will still be doubts until a trade deal is completed… Chinese news sources are reporting reductions in Chinese hog inventories of “20% or more in many regions, creating tighter supplies and rising prices in the coming months,” Allendale said… [Fri]: National carcass base down 69 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 18 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 38 cents… “Uncertainty is certainly pumping a lot of volatility into the futures,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said… Joe Lardy of CHS Hedging said the true severity of the issue is hard to figure out. “Some estimates are saying the losses are equivalent of the entire U.S. hog supply,” Lardy said, which continues hopes for more U.S. pork purchases which could continue to push prices…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 4/8/2019 8:45 AM

 

Lean hogs - Lean hogs “continues to be a tough market to trade,” Blue Line Futures said. They recommend traders “sit on their hands” unless they need to hedge their business or can handle massive swings against your bets. “We’ve heard a lot of people talking about shorting hogs, we would advise against that,” they said. “We would not be surprised to see the market continue higher over time.”

 

“The hog market continues to find strong buying support over fears of a sharp drop in Chinese production and the possibility that their imports will surge,” The Hightower Report said. However, the short term supply is still “ample,” they said, and there will still be doubts until a trade deal is completed.

 

China reports more ASF

 

Chinese news sources are reporting reductions in Chinese hog inventories of “20% or more in many regions, creating tighter supplies and rising prices in the coming months,” Allendale said. The first outbreak of African swine fever was confirmed in the country’s Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total of 55 pigs killed so far.

 

Cattle is still dealing with unknowns on the demand side of the picture, as the trade waits to see if China may emerge as a major buyer of U.S. beef in any sort of trade deal, The Hightower Report said. Sharply higher pork prices could bring higher beef demand, they said.

 

Fri 4/5/2019 4:43 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

National carcass base down 69 cents to $75.79/cwt.

National live rose $1.32 to $58.62

Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 18 cents to $77.08

Iowa-Minnesota live rose 62 cents to $60.00

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon fell 38 cents at $81.84/cwt.

 

“Uncertainty is certainly pumping a lot of volatility into the futures,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “They are reaching for the stars.” She said it looks like more contracts may trade over the $100 mark soon. She said busy markets are ahead, and it could take its toll on beef.

 

With another case of African swine fever being reported this week in China, the disease continues to be a major issue. However, Joe Lardy of CHS Hedging said the true severity of the issue is hard to figure out. “Some estimates are saying the losses are equivalent of the entire U.S. hog supply,” Lardy said, which continues hopes for more U.S. pork purchases which could continue to push prices.

 

Hog contracts hitting $100

 

The July and August lean hog contracts traded over $100 today, but Michaela White of CHS Hedging said “it remains to be seen if they hold this on Monday.” She noted that bellies were up over $11 this morning.

 

Slaughter this week came in at 584,000 head for cattle, a 3,000 head increase from last week, and a 12,000 head increase from the same stretch last year.

 

Hog slaughter came in at 2.316 mln head, a slight decline from last week, but up nearly 150,000 head from last year.

 

Eyes turning to Tuesday

 

It was announced that nonfarm payrolls rose by 196,000 in March, with the unemployment rate staying at 3.8%.

 

The next big report that will come out is Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand report, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.

 

The WASDE report is expected to show ending stocks on the rise, after being “already quite large,” White said.

 

Corn

 

Corn’s downside today was limited, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. There are concerns about planting delays and ideas that the Corn Belt will see more we weather over the next few weeks.

 

Corn still needs some good demand news after last week’s crash, The Hightower Report said. That has led to continued weakness, which combines with a failure to finalize a trade deal, “as traders have become weary of the ongoing daily commentary.”

 

Soybeans

 

More trade uncertainty hurt soybeans today, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. “There still continues to be issues between the two nations regarding the trade deal,” she said. She said that trades have added to their short position this week, sitting at 91.700 contracts.

 

While optimism still remains in the trade deal, no new news after Thursday’s meeting between Trump and Vice Premier Liu lent to selling pressure today, The Hightower Report said.

 

Wheat

 

Today marked a “bleak” picture across the board, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. The average estimate for Tuesday’s WASDE report came in at 1.072 bln bushels for the U.S. and 271.00 bln bushels.

 

“Wheat prices are now treading water for the last 25 days or so,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Prices continue to search for direction in a potential seasonal low. Yet, world supply and demand numbers continue to edge higher on nearly a monthly basis. The lack of export activity this winter and good growing conditions elsewhere in the world have weighed on futures, as has additional fund selling.”

 

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