[Mon]: The current picture in cattle “suggests a top,” William Moore of the Price Futures Group said, “but the market may have a hard time going down,” he added. This is because of the strength in the hog complex, which helped June cattle rally $1.50 last week… Cattle is still dealing with unknowns on the demand side of the picture, as the trade waits to see if China may emerge as a major buyer of U.S. beef in any sort of trade deal, The Hightower Report said. Sharply higher pork prices could bring higher beef demand, they said… [Fri]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady… Choice rose 19 cents… Select went up $1.92… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 4,545 head sold live at $126, with 1,621 sold dressed at $204-206. In Iowa-Minnesota, 1,646 head sold live at $127-129, and 2,100 head sold dressed at $202-206…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Mon 4/8/2019 8:45 AM

 

Cattle - The current picture in cattle “suggests a top,” William Moore of the Price Futures Group said, “but the market may have a hard time going down,” he added. This is because of the strength in the hog complex, which helped June cattle rally $1.50 last week. “Despite the big first to second quarter production increase in poundage and the lack of a bullish weather input as winter fades away, the spillover from a very bullish pork complex will underpin the market,” Moore said.

 

With much of cattle trade’s success last week (especially Thursday) being money flow related, Blue Line Futures said Friday marked a “great opportunity to reduce risk into the weekend,” after things retreated slightly. Hopes of a trade deal could continue to support prices.

 

China reports more ASF

 

Chinese news sources are reporting reductions in Chinese hog inventories of “20% or more in many regions, creating tighter supplies and rising prices in the coming months,” Allendale said. The first outbreak of African swine fever was confirmed in the country’s Tibet Autonomous Region, with a total of 55 pigs killed so far.

 

Cattle is still dealing with unknowns on the demand side of the picture, as the trade waits to see if China may emerge as a major buyer of U.S. beef in any sort of trade deal, The Hightower Report said. Sharply higher pork prices could bring higher beef demand, they said.

 

Fri 4/5/2019 4:43 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady on Choice and higher on Select on moderate to good demand and offerings, USDA said.

 

 

In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 4,545 head sold live at $126, with 1,621 sold dressed at $204-206. In Iowa-Minnesota, 1,646 head sold live at $127-129, and 2,100 head sold dressed at $202-206.

 

Cattle started the day lower, with the feeder cattle coming in mixed today. Virginia McGathey said there was a recovery expected at the end of the week, but “it didn’t really happen.” She said the mix in feeders shows optimism on the horizon.

 

There is “less fear of too much snow in the forecast” over the next week, which helped pressure the market today, The Hightower Report said.

 

Hog contracts hitting $100

 

The July and August lean hog contracts traded over $100 today, but Michaela White of CHS Hedging said “it remains to be seen if they hold this on Monday.” She noted that bellies were up over $11 this morning.

 

Slaughter this week came in at 584,000 head for cattle, a 3,000 head increase from last week, and a 12,000 head increase from the same stretch last year.

 

Hog slaughter came in at 2.316 mln head, a slight decline from last week, but up nearly 150,000 head from last year.

 

Eyes turning to Tuesday

 

It was announced that nonfarm payrolls rose by 196,000 in March, with the unemployment rate staying at 3.8%.

 

The next big report that will come out is Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and Supply and Demand report, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said.

 

The WASDE report is expected to show ending stocks on the rise, after being “already quite large,” White said.

 

Corn

 

Corn’s downside today was limited, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. There are concerns about planting delays and ideas that the Corn Belt will see more we weather over the next few weeks.

 

Corn still needs some good demand news after last week’s crash, The Hightower Report said. That has led to continued weakness, which combines with a failure to finalize a trade deal, “as traders have become weary of the ongoing daily commentary.”

 

Soybeans

 

More trade uncertainty hurt soybeans today, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. “There still continues to be issues between the two nations regarding the trade deal,” she said. She said that trades have added to their short position this week, sitting at 91.700 contracts.

 

While optimism still remains in the trade deal, no new news after Thursday’s meeting between Trump and Vice Premier Liu lent to selling pressure today, The Hightower Report said.

 

Wheat

 

Today marked a “bleak” picture across the board, Michaela White of CHS Hedging said. The average estimate for Tuesday’s WASDE report came in at 1.072 bln bushels for the U.S. and 271.00 bln bushels.

 

“Wheat prices are now treading water for the last 25 days or so,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Prices continue to search for direction in a potential seasonal low. Yet, world supply and demand numbers continue to edge higher on nearly a monthly basis. The lack of export activity this winter and good growing conditions elsewhere in the world have weighed on futures, as has additional fund selling.”

 

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