In this file:


·         USDA Predicts Increase in Farm Income for 2019

·         USDA’s early look at 2019 farm income



USDA Predicts Increase in Farm Income for 2019


Brian German, Ag Net West

March 12, 2019


The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is predicting a significant increase in farm income in the first projection for 2019.  The 2019 Farm Sector Income Forecast that was released on March 6 from the USDA Economic Research Service demonstrates an expectation for net income to increase $6.3 billion for the year, an increase of about ten percent compared to 2018 which saw a decline of 16 percent.


“We’re looking at higher prices and that will contribute to higher cash receipts,” said USDA Deputy Chief Economist Warren Preston, who noted that cash receipts for all commodities are expected to be about 2.3 percent higher than last year.  “In crops, we’re looking at an increase in farm cash receipts of about $4 billion,” said Preston, who also mentioned that the report shows “corn up 5.2 percent, cotton up 6.5 percent, fruit and nuts up 8.2 percent, and wheat up 5.4 percent.”  Cash receipts for livestock are also expected to increase $4.6 billion largely due to record production and higher prices.  Preston also noted that a seven percent drop in egg receipts is expected, as well as a 3.2 decline for hogs.


The projection for $69.4 billion in net farm income is a sizeable increase, however, it does not offset the numbers from 2018 which was the second-lowest year for net income in the past decade.   Information that was released in February...


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USDA’s early look at 2019 farm income


Source: AFBF

via The Fence Post - March 12, 2019


On March 6, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the first projections for farm income and other financial indicators for the 2019 calendar year. According to the Farm Sector Income Forecast, for 2019, net farm income, a broad measure of farm profitability, is projected at $69.4 billion, up $6.3 billion, or 10 percent, from 2018.


The higher net farm income projection comes despite continued retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, but largely reflects expectations for trend yields and slightly higher prices for some commodities. This early projection will change as more information on actual acreage, the growing season and, ultimately, demand become known.


The projection for 2019 net farm income includes direct payments from the Market Facilitation Program made to farmers impacted by retaliatory tariffs. Revised net farm income for 2018 was announced at $63.1 billion and was the second lowest over the last decade.


USDA's first projection for net farm income in 2019 is projected at $69.4 billion, the third-lowest level over the last decade. In 2019-inflation-adjusted dollars, net farm income in 2019 is projected to be 8 percent higher than prior-year levels, representing an increase of $5.2 billion. However, in inflation-adjusted dollars, net farm income in 2019 will remain among the bottom 25 percent of all-time, Figure 2.


Expectations for higher farm income were driven partly by a $5.9 billion increase in gross cash income to $428 billion in 2019. Higher cash receipts are expected for corn (+$2.5 billion), wheat (+$500 million), rice (+$200 million), cotton (+$500 million), vegetables and melons (+$200 million), fruits and nuts (+$2.5 billion), milk (+$2.7 billion), cattle and calves (+$2.7 billion), and broilers (+$100 million). Lower cash receipts are projected for hogs (-$700 million) and soybeans (-$2.6 billion) – two commodities significantly impacted by retaliatory tariffs.






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