[Tues]: The beef market is strong enough to support more buying and perhaps higher cash cattle trade this coming week,” said The Hightower Report… [Mon]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher… Choice rose $1.23… Select went up 85 cents… There were no reported negotiated cash sales in the Nebraska and Iowa/Minnesota markets…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 3/12/2019 9:09 AM
Cattle - “The beef market is strong enough to support more buying and perhaps higher cash cattle trade this coming week,” said The Hightower Report.
USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head, up 3,000 week over week and up 5,000 from last year, said Brugler Marketing & Management.
Pork prices going hog wild
Chinese hog prices soared to their highest price in 14 months and look poised to keep rising after weeks of gains, analysts and producers said, as the African swine fever outbreak continues to deplete China’s vast pig herd supply, Allendale said.
Weather in U.S. beef producing areas may have an impact on production. A large winter storm is expected to hit parts of Nebraska and South Dakota with those areas expected to get one to two feet of snow, CHS Hedging said. Also, areas of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are likely to get rain leading to possible flooding.
“The slow weight gains will keep short-term production a bit lower than expected,” said The Hightower Report of the impact of current weather on beef production.
Mon 3/11/2019 4:39 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on good demand and light offerings, USDA said.
Choice rose $1.23 to $227.36/cwt.
Select went up 85 cents to $219.63.
There were no reported negotiated cash sales in the Nebraska and Iowa/Minnesota markets.
Despite a rally Friday, the expected continue upward trade didn’t continue today, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “We thought the bulls would keep it going,” she said. She said the market may be overbought, but it’s been tough to pick a top to the market in recent months.
“The market bounced to recover more than half of the losses (on the day),… but still closed down near 70 lower on the day,” The Hightower Report said. Weather is causing lower production in the first quarter, causing an increase for the second quarter, they noted.
Hogs continue recent surge
Buying today came late in the session with a push over $80.00 at one point today. “The buying pushed the market up to the highest level since January 18,” The Hightower Report said. The recent rise in Chinese prices have helped U.S. prices.
Improving feedlot conditions helped cattle find sellers today, Stewart-Peterson said. “Traders will be watching the fundamentals for signs of weakness to see if speculative length begins to exit quickly,” they said.
USDA budget could be cut
In President Trump's proposed budget for 2020, there is a proposed 15 percent cut for the USDA, according to Reuters. Reuters said it is “calling its subsidies to farmers ‘overly generous.’”
There was a lack of fresh news today, helping the markets be softer today, Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said. “The soybeans appear to be giving up hope for a trade war resolution anytime soon,” she said. “Talk is that it could drag on into April sometime.”
“Early trade was higher on hopes that a new trade deal between U.S. and China was closer to being done,” Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. The managed net short in corn is near a record large, he said.
Overall weakness in the grain markets kept sellers active in the corn positions as prices continue to challenge September lows, Stewart Peterson said. “Last Friday’s USDA supply/demand numbers did highlight some concerns in the grain market,” they said. “With an adjustment on the export side, some traders feel demand may be starting to slow.”
Soybean funds added to short positions, helping the market trade lower today, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. “Some feel this could be due to talk of higher World 2019 crops and slower World economic growth,” he said.
“The downtrend is still intact right now,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. Soybeans are nearing a four month low, as traders wait on a deal to be accomplished between the U.S. and China. Weather could delay planting, which could add acres to soybeans this year.
Wheat continued its down trend to open the week. Virginia McGathey asked if there were more shipment cuts coming to Wheat, and she believes the market is saying there is. She said traders are wondering if the market could end up going below $4.
The wheat market fell on world supplies, and while there is demand, “nobody seems to be busting down the doors to import U.S. wheat despite increasingly competitive U.S. prices,” Ami L. Heesch of CHS Hedging said.