… Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2019 is lowered from the previous month as lower forecast beef and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production… 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks…



WASDE: Corn Carryout Increased


World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates as published by USDA

via AgWeb - Mar 8, 2019




Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2019 is lowered from the previous month as lower forecast beef and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on the pace of fed cattle slaughter in the first quarter and lower expected marketings in mid-2019. Partly offsetting the lower fed cattle slaughter is higher expected cow slaughter. The lower production forecast also reflects lighter carcass weights in 2019. The pork production forecast is raised slightly on the current pace of slaughter and heavier first-quarter carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is unchanged from last month. The turkey production forecast is decreased as hatchery data is pointing to lower-than-previously expected poult placements. Forecast egg production is increased on continued growth in the laying flock.


The 2019 beef, broiler, turkey, and egg trade forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Pork imports are lowered for 2019, reflecting larger domestic supplies and limited demand for foreign product. Forecast pork exports are lowered on slower international demand for U.S. pork products. Cattle price forecasts are raised for 2019 on current price strength and expectations of firm demand throughout the year. First- and third-quarter hog prices are reduced from the previous month. First-quarter broiler and egg price forecasts are reduced on recent price data. First-half turkey prices are raised.


For 2019, the milk production forecast is lowered on smaller expected dairy cow numbers. The fat basis export forecast is reduced on slower expected sales of butterfat due to increased global competition. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered on expected strong competition in international skim milk powder markets and slower expected demand for whey products. The fat basis import forecast is lowered slightly while the skim-solids basis import forecast is unchanged. Annual product price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised from the previous month, but the whey price forecast is reduced slightly. The Class III price is raised as the higher cheese price projection more than offsets the lower whey price. The Class IV price is increased on higher forecast butter and NDM prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to average $17.00 to $17.60 per cwt.




This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during February as indicated by Energy Information Administration data. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion, reflecting diminished U.S. price competitiveness and expectations of increased exports for Brazil and Argentina. With no other use changes, ending stocks are raised 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55 per bushel. For sorghum, 2018/19 exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 85 million, which if realized would be the lowest since 2012/13. Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 5 million bushels reflecting a reduction in the projected amount of sorghum used to produce ethanol. Offsetting is a 20 million bushel increase in feed and residual use. The midpoint price forecast is lowered 5 cents to $3.30 per bushel.


The global coarse grain production forecast for 2018/19 is down slightly to 1,371.9 million metric tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for marginally lower production, virtually unchanged trade, greater use, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is unchanged, with increased yield expectations offset by a reduction in area. Faster-than-normal planting progress improves yield prospects for second-crop corn in the Center-West, while area is down reflecting updated expectations for both first and second-crop corn. Corn production is raised for India, but lowered for South Africa. Australia coarse grain production is higher, as a forecast increase in barley more than offsets a reduction for sorghum. Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include higher projected corn exports for Argentina and Ukraine and reduction for the United States. For 2017/18, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2019 are raised based on larger than expected late-season shipments. Partly offsetting is a reduction for Argentina. China’s coarse grain imports for 2018/19 are lowered, reflecting lower forecast sorghum and barley imports. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised with lower sorghum and barley imports. Corn imports are raised for the EU and Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2018/19 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Brazil, and Argentina.


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