In this file:
· U.S. ambassador to China says no date yet for summit, trade deal not ‘imminent’
… neither side feels an agreement is imminent…
· How a US-China Deal Might Reshape Global Trade
… how will global trade flows change in the event of a deal? …
U.S. ambassador to China says no date yet for summit, trade deal not ‘imminent’
By Lingling Wei & Jeremy Page, The Wall Street Journal
via MarketWatch - Mar 8, 2019
BEIJING —The U.S. and China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute, the U.S. ambassador to China said Friday, as neither side feels an agreement is imminent.
“A date hasn’t been finalized” for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Terry Branstad, the U.S. envoy to Beijing, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. He said preparations for such a meeting aren’t yet under way either.
Branstad said negotiators need to further narrow the gap in their positions, including over the enforcement of a potential deal, before summit arrangements are made...
How a US-China Deal Might Reshape Global Trade
via Transport Topics - March 7, 2019
President Donald Trump says he has asked China to immediately remove all tariffs on U.S. agricultural products in what could be a huge blessing for American farmers. But how will global trade flows change in the event of a deal?
The most obvious impact will be on Brazil and Argentina, which were among the biggest winners of the trade war, as their soybeans in China displaced those of the United States. Should the Asian nation dump its 25% retaliatory tariffs on soy — America’s biggest agricultural export to China before the trade war — their big advantage will fade.
But should China follow through on an offer to buy an extra $30 billion a year in American farm products, a raft of other countries could see sales to the world’s biggest commodity buyer decline.
Canada may see shipments of rapeseed and wheat shrink, while Australia could find China is less keen to buy its beef and cotton. U.S. Department of Agriculture Chief Economist Robert Johansson identified livestock products as a key area for potential exports to China. Meanwhile, Australia’s agriculture minister has warned that any deal that is unfair to other nations could end up at the World Trade Organization.
“Farm products are among the few options China has to help balance trade with the U.S.,” said Zhong Funing, a professor at the International Research Center for Food and Agricultural Economics at Nanjing Agricultural University. “We have to import more U.S. farm products while sacrificing other markets.”
While a deal is yet to be made, the two nations are close, two people familiar with the discussions said. The new target could see annual U.S. agriculture exports to China rise to about $55 billion to $60 billion, achievable in about three years, according to Rabobank International. That’s up from $24 billion in 2017. China’s commerce ministry didn’t reply to a fax seeking comment.
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