In this file:

 

·         China’s exports fall more than 20% in February; overall trade data come in much weaker

·         China February exports tumble the most in three years, spur fears of 'trade recession'

 

 

China’s exports fall more than 20% in February; overall trade data come in much weaker

 

    China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing’s trade dispute with the U.S.

    February dollar-denominated exports fell 20.7 percent, compared to an expected 4.8 percent fall.

    February dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent, compared to an expected 1.4 percent fall.

    China’s overall trade surplus for the month came to $4.12 billion — much weaker than an expected $26.38 billion.

 

Huileng Tan, CNBC 

Mar 8 2019

 

China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for the month of February, customs data showed amid Beijing’s trade dispute with the U.S.

 

Dollar-denominated exports plunged 20.7 percent for the month of February from a year ago, missing economists’ expectations of a 4.8 percent decline, according to a Reuters poll. January exports had risen 9.1 percent from a year ago.

 

Dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2 percent in February from a year ago, missing economists’ forecast of a 1.4 percent fall. January imports had fallen 1.5 percent on-year.

 

China’s February trade balance was also significantly weaker than expected at $4.12 billion. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the overall trade balance to come in at $26.38 billion. The country’s trade balance in January had been $39.16 billion.

 

China’s politically sensitive trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed sharply to $14.72 billion in February from $27.3 billion in January.

 

‘A lot of headwinds’

 

Although the 20.7 percent decline in Chinese exports for the month of February was a “big number” and the market will be “clearly disappointed,” the negative number should not come as a surprise as investors have been expecting a slowdown both globally and in China, said Sarah Lien, director and client portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments.

 

“There are a lot of headwinds; there’s a lot of moving parts in market,” Lien told CNBC.

 

Analysts have been warning of an impending slowdown in Chinese exports even though overall economic data out of the country has been robust for the last year. Asia’s largest economy continues to negotiate through a trade dispute with the U.S., its largest trading partner. Exports held up for much of 2018 as many exporters were rushing to ship their goods out before heavier tariffs hit.

 

According to sources who spoke to CNBC, Washington and Beijing appear to be approaching the finish line on trade negotiations that could end later this month.

 

Holiday distortion, but outlook still gloomy ...  

 

more, including links

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/china-february-trade-imports-exports-beijing-reports-china-economic-data.html

 

 

China February exports tumble the most in three years, spur fears of 'trade recession'

 

Stella Qiu & Ryan Woo, Reuters

Mar 7, 2019

 

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s exports tumbled the most in three years in February while imports fell for a third straight month, pointing to a further slowdown in the economy and stirring talk of a “trade recession”, despite a spate of support measures.

 

While seasonal factors may have been at play, the shockingly weak readings from the world’s largest trading nation added to worries about a global slowdown, a day after the European Central Bank slashed growth forecasts for the region.

 

Asian stock markets and U.S. futures extended losses after the data. Chinese stocks sank over 4 percent in their worst day in five months.[MKTS/GLOB]

 

Global investors and China’s major trading partners are closely watching Beijing’s policy reactions as economic growth cools from last year’s 28-year low. But the government has vowed it will not resort to massive stimulus like in the past, which helped revive demand worldwide.

 

February exports fell 20.7 percent from a year earlier, the largest decline since February 2016, customs data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 4.8 percent drop after January’s unexpected 9.1 percent jump.

 

“Today’s trade figures reinforce our view that China’s trade recession has started to emerge,” Raymond Yeung, Greater China chief economist at ANZ, wrote in a note.

 

Imports fell 5.2 percent from a year earlier, worse than analysts’ forecasts for a 1.4 percent fall and widening from January’s 1.5 percent drop. Imports of major commodities fell across the board.

 

That left the country with a trade surplus of $4.12 billion for the month, much smaller than forecasts of $26.38 billion.

 

Analysts warn that data from China in the first two months of the year should be read with caution due to business disruptions caused by the long Lunar New Year holidays, which came in mid-February in 2018 but started on Feb. 4 this year.

 

But many China watchers had expected a weak start to the year as factory surveys showed dwindling domestic and export orders and the Sino-U.S. trade war dragged on.

 

“Seasonal distortions around the Chinese New Year holiday has added noise to the export data in the past two months, and in our view explain most of the surprise (relative to consensus),” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, whose estimate for a 20 percent export drop was the most pessimistic in the Reuters poll.

 

But they noted that export momentum on a three-month basis has moderated significantly since the third quarter last year and said “growth is likely to remain soft in the near future.”

 

TRADE WAR ...

 

WORLD’S GROWTH ENGINE SLOWING ...  

 

more

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade-idUSKCN1QP0CA