[Fri]: The 5.34 percent jump in Chinese pig values overnight is the highest level since October and up 20.8 percent for the year, said The Hightower Report. Also, U.S. pork values are reaching the highest levels since Feb. 12 creating a bullish market… [Thurs]: National carcass base was 8 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was N/A… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.19… Hog markets were seeing some signs of hope that pork prices could be on the way up, which gave markets a boost. “The jump in pork product prices over the past few days has helped to support the market with ideas that the cash market could turn up soon,” the Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 3/8/2019 9:07 AM
Lean hogs - Pork sales this past week ran 24,436 metric tonnes. That was good at 23 percent over last year in the same week. No China buys were reported in last week’s numbers, Allendale said.
The 5.34 percent jump in Chinese pig values overnight is the highest level since October and up 20.8 percent for the year, said The Hightower Report. Also, U.S. pork values are reaching the highest levels since Feb. 12 creating a bullish market.
Consider buying August hogs near $78.20 looking for a $83.10 as initial upside target and “don’t rule out an eventual run to $88.30,” The Hightower Report said.
Livestock prices trending up
The U.S. China pork markets continue to show signs that they have bottomed. China’s national spot tradable prig price was up overnight, “the second day in a row it increased by over five percent”, The Hightower Report said.
The uptrend in beef prices and the continued poor feedlot performance have helped support the market recently. “More snow and cold weather and high winds into the weekend should be seen as supportive as well,” said The Hightower Report.
“The beef market is strong enough to support more buying and perhaps higher cash cattle trade,” said The Hightower Report.
Thu 3/7/2019 4:53 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base was 8 cents lower to $44.80/cwt.
National live was down 36 cents to $36.09
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base was N/A
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose $1.19 to $64.25/cwt.
Hog markets were seeing some signs of hope that pork prices could be on the way up, which gave markets a boost. “The jump in pork product prices over the past few days has helped to support the market with ideas that the cash market could turn up soon,” the Hightower Report said.
Analysts were also watching the fundamentals for signs of support for hog markets. “April hogs are still holding their 20-day moving average support level while June and July have fallen below their 10- and 20-day moving average support levels this morning,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Weather and demand boosts cattle
Weather and retail demand supported cattle today. “Weather in the Plains has been stressful enough to keep weights light, and continued forecasts of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation will keep cattle stressed,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Meanwhile, retail beef demand remains an immense source of strength, with prices near levels not seen since June.”
For hogs, traders were watching pork production while waiting for more trade news. “The CME Lean Hog Index made a move higher yesterday but is back lower again this morning,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Still, prices are range bound as U.S. pork production remains the focus of hog traders until further progress between the U.S. and China is noted.”
Soybean shipment gives hope
A soybean shipment to China gave some soybean hope. “Some mild support has been seen from talk that China has secured 2.0 to 3.0 mln tonnes of US soybeans from the US Gulf and Pacific Northwest,” ADM Investor Services said. “This should be a sign that the US/China trade talks continue to progress as this would be the start of the pledged 10 mln ton purchase by China.”
South America’s weather and projected production continued to push corn markets lower. “Continued ideal weather in both Brazil and Argentina have been a bearish factor this week as production levels will come in well above year ago levels,” ADM Investor Services said.
Corn markets faced a number of negative factors, and there’s growing concern about a late start. “The corn market fell apart from a stronger U.S. dollar, spillover weakness in the wheat markets,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Weekly export sales were ok, and jitters about a possible late start to the planting season have begun to surface in earnest. “
Corn did see some positive signs from a sorghum shipment to China, which could mean shipments of other crops could be heading out. “One cargo of US sorghum was sold to China according to last week's export sales data. This could be a significant sign and might be the start of agricultural purchases besides US soybeans,” the Hightower Report said.
Soybean stocks were estimated lower than before. “The average estimate for Friday's supply/demand report has US ending stocks at 904 mln bushels (852-944 mln range) and compared to 910 mln last month,” ADM Investor Services said. “The world ending stocks are estimated at 106.6 mln tonnes (104.0-113.6 mln range) and compared to 206.7 mln last month.”
“Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 311,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 72,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 383,400 tonnes,” the Hightower Report said. “As of Feb. 28, cumulative soybean sales stand at 77.0 percent of the USDA forecast for the 2018/2019 (Current) Marketing Year versus a 5 year average of 89.7%.”
Wheat was down with pressure from the strength of the U.S. dollar and increases in world wheat production. “The strength in the US dollar has seen as a bearish factor all week,” ADM Investor Services said. “FAO sees the 2019 world wheat production rising 4 percent to 757 mln tonnes in their initial forecast.”
The supplies continue to be an issue for wheat markets. “Plentiful supplies hang over the wheat market, despite better than expected export sales numbers,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Chicago and KC dipped to new contract lows across most all months.”