[Fri]: “The beef market is strong enough to support more buying and perhaps higher cash cattle trade,” said The Hightower Report… [Thurs]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher… Choice was up $1.11… Select rose 17 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 7,320 head sold live at $127-128, and 539 sold dressed at $205. In Iowa-Minnesota, 68 were sold live at $129.50, and 542 were sold dressed at $204-205… Weather and retail demand supported cattle today…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 3/8/2019 9:07 AM
Cattle - With a steady downward trend in weights and a strong beef market, “April cattle could be in position to test the highs, while the strong cash market tone could support the June cattle due to its wide discount,” said The Hightower Report.
Weekly beef export sales ran 24,710 tonnes in the latest week. That was positive at 26 percent over last year in the same week, Allendale said.
The Cattle on Feed report will be out today at 2 p.m.
Livestock prices trending up
The U.S. China pork markets continue to show signs that they have bottomed. China’s national spot tradable prig price was up overnight, “the second day in a row it increased by over five percent”, The Hightower Report said.
The uptrend in beef prices and the continued poor feedlot performance have helped support the market recently. “More snow and cold weather and high winds into the weekend should be seen as supportive as well,” said The Hightower Report.
“The beef market is strong enough to support more buying and perhaps higher cash cattle trade,” said The Hightower Report.
Thu 3/7/2019 4:53 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on Choice and steady on Select on moderate to fairly good demand and light offerings, the USDA said.
Choice was up $1.11 to $226.04/cwt.
Select rose 17 cents to $218.54.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 7,320 head sold live at $127-128, and 539 sold dressed at $205. In Iowa-Minnesota, 68 were sold live at $129.50, and 542 were sold dressed at $204-205.
On a choppy day, there was enough support to push markets higher. “April cattle closed slightly higher on the day after choppy and two-sided trade early,” the Hightower Report said. “June cattle closed moderately higher as the discount to cash helped to support. The uptrend in beef prices and continued poor feedlot performance helped to support the market.”
“The best traded June live cattle contract is showing very strong price action today despite the relatively modest gains thus far,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Prices opened up just below the 10-day moving average resistance level and surged through relatively easily. August lives are showing equal if not greater strength today.”
Weather and demand boosts cattle
Weather and retail demand supported cattle today. “Weather in the Plains has been stressful enough to keep weights light, and continued forecasts of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation will keep cattle stressed,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Meanwhile, retail beef demand remains an immense source of strength, with prices near levels not seen since June.”
For hogs, traders were watching pork production while waiting for more trade news. “The CME Lean Hog Index made a move higher yesterday but is back lower again this morning,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Still, prices are range bound as U.S. pork production remains the focus of hog traders until further progress between the U.S. and China is noted.”
Soybean shipment gives hope
A soybean shipment to China gave some soybean hope. “Some mild support has been seen from talk that China has secured 2.0 to 3.0 mln tonnes of US soybeans from the US Gulf and Pacific Northwest,” ADM Investor Services said. “This should be a sign that the US/China trade talks continue to progress as this would be the start of the pledged 10 mln ton purchase by China.”
South America’s weather and projected production continued to push corn markets lower. “Continued ideal weather in both Brazil and Argentina have been a bearish factor this week as production levels will come in well above year ago levels,” ADM Investor Services said.
Corn markets faced a number of negative factors, and there’s growing concern about a late start. “The corn market fell apart from a stronger U.S. dollar, spillover weakness in the wheat markets,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Weekly export sales were ok, and jitters about a possible late start to the planting season have begun to surface in earnest. “
Corn did see some positive signs from a sorghum shipment to China, which could mean shipments of other crops could be heading out. “One cargo of US sorghum was sold to China according to last week's export sales data. This could be a significant sign and might be the start of agricultural purchases besides US soybeans,” the Hightower Report said.
Soybean stocks were estimated lower than before. “The average estimate for Friday's supply/demand report has US ending stocks at 904 mln bushels (852-944 mln range) and compared to 910 mln last month,” ADM Investor Services said. “The world ending stocks are estimated at 106.6 mln tonnes (104.0-113.6 mln range) and compared to 206.7 mln last month.”
“Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 311,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 72,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 383,400 tonnes,” the Hightower Report said. “As of Feb. 28, cumulative soybean sales stand at 77.0 percent of the USDA forecast for the 2018/2019 (Current) Marketing Year versus a 5 year average of 89.7%.”
Wheat was down with pressure from the strength of the U.S. dollar and increases in world wheat production. “The strength in the US dollar has seen as a bearish factor all week,” ADM Investor Services said. “FAO sees the 2019 world wheat production rising 4 percent to 757 mln tonnes in their initial forecast.”
The supplies continue to be an issue for wheat markets. “Plentiful supplies hang over the wheat market, despite better than expected export sales numbers,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Chicago and KC dipped to new contract lows across most all months.”