In this file:
· China Will Buy More Than Just Soybeans
… “I think when we look at what's going on in China right now, pork is certainly gonna be on top of the list with the African swine fever,” Nicholson said adding he’s heard upwards of 30% of the country’s herd will be decimated by ASF…
· Where is China's 10 mmt Buy of U.S. Soybeans?
· Trump Pushes China Trade Deal to Boost Markets as 2020 Heats Up
· China’s Shopping List in America Has These Farm Goods at the Top
... Meat may also be a key ingredient in the trade war deal, with America’s beef, poultry, lamb and fish suppliers potential winners, according to Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at INTL FCStone Inc...
· China’s Gov’t to Buy Pork for Reserves
· China reports new African swine fever outbreak in Guangxi region
China Will Buy More Than Just Soybeans
By Anna-Lisa Laca, Farm Journal's Milk, Online and Business Editor
via AgWeb - March 6, 2019
As trade talks with China march on, all eyes are on the soybean markets. But a trade deal with China could mean increased exports for many other commodities. Rabo AgriFinance put together a “shopping list” of products China will likely begin purchasing if a deal is completed. This week on AgriTalk, Steve Nicholson, grain and oilseed analyst at Rabo, shared some of the products they expect China to buy in addition to soybeans.
“There’s a lot on the [shopping] list,” Nicholson told AgriTalk host Chip Flory, “but there's a lot with a long way to go to get to that.”
While he says soybeans are the most important, he outlined a handful that he sees as equally important to U.S. agriculture.
Ethanol and DDGs ...
Beef, pork and poultry. “I think when we look at what's going on in China right now, pork is certainly gonna be on top of the list with the African swine fever,” Nicholson said adding he’s heard upwards of 30% of the country’s herd will be decimated by ASF. “When you start thinking about China and the number of head of hogs there, it’s a really big number.”
Importantly, Nicholson also pointed out the timing on this is not likely to be what farmers are hoping for.
“We're Americans, we’re extremely impatient and we expect this to happen tomorrow, but this promise to buy really is through 2021 through 2022,” he said. “So, this is a bit of a longer term buy. So while it will be an initial positive reaction, it's going to take some time and the market’s gonna have to spend some time digesting this and figuring out where it's going to go. This isn't just going to happen overnight and be over.”
more, including audio [7:49 min.]
Where is China's 10 mmt Buy of U.S. Soybeans?
By Marjorie Kulba, AgDay TV, AgDay Producer
via AgWeb - Mar 6, 2019
Remember when China said it would be buying another 10 mmt of U.S. soybeans? That was on February 22nd, and so far, it doesn't look like it's happened yet, but USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board chairman Seth Meyer says that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
The news about the possible Chinese purchase had it's good and bad effects on the market. It brought U.S. soybean prices up a bit, but right now, Brazil is in the middle of its soybean harvest. Prices there are down, and there's concern U.S. sales to China are only about 15% of what they normally are.
"We need to be priced competitive to sell to the rest of the world," said Meyer. "Our prices are being bitten up fractionally because folks are hoping the Chinese will come in and make big buys, so that's supporting prices a little bit, so we're not very price-competitive right now".
document, plus video report [1:00 min.]
Trump Pushes China Trade Deal to Boost Markets as 2020 Heats Up
Advisers said to make case of stock market rally on China deal
President looking for win after abandoning North Korea talks
By Jennifer Jacobs and Saleha Mohsin, Bloomberg
March 6, 2019
President Donald Trump is pushing for U.S. negotiators to close a trade deal with China soon, concerned that he needs a big win on the international stage -- and the stock market bump that would come with it -- in advance of his re-election campaign.
As trade talks with China advance, Trump has noticed the market gains that followed each sign of progress and expressed concern that the lack an agreement could drag down stocks, according to people familiar with the matter. He watched U.S. and Asian equities rise on his decision to delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for March 1, one of the people said.
The world’s two largest economies are moving closer to a final agreement that could end their almost year-long trade war, an outcome that would also provide a boost to his efforts to seek reelection in 2020. A new trade accord that would provide Trump with a much-needed win after the collapse of his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Trump, who met with his trade team Monday, has expressed interest in hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping for a signing ceremony on a deal as soon as this month. His enthusiasm for a pact could shape crucial decisions such as balancing Chinese pressure to lift tariffs immediately against trade hawks’ arguments to initially maintain duties as leverage to assure good behavior by Beijing.
Trump’s fixation on stock-market performance has shaped his assessments of his economic policies. Top White House staff know to be aware of how markets are performing when summoned to the Oval Office to speak with Trump because the president often asks: ‘‘What’s happening with the markets?’’
Advocates of concluding a deal within the administration have seized on that fixation to bolster their case, one person said...
more, including audio [4:03 min.]
China’s Shopping List in America Has These Farm Goods at the Top
U.S. may take market share from Brazil, Argentina, Australia
A U.S.-China trade deal means the end of an era: Brazil group
March 6, 2019
President Donald Trump says he’s asked China to immediately remove all tariffs on U.S. agricultural products in what could be a huge blessing for American farmers. But how will global trade flows change in the event of a deal?
The most obvious impact will be on Brazil and Argentina, which were among the biggest winners of the trade war, as their soybeans in China displaced the U.S. Should the Asian nation dump its 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on soy -- America’s biggest agricultural export to China before the trade war -- their big advantage will fade.
But should China follow through on an offer to buy an extra $30 billion a year in American farm products, a raft of other countries could see sales to the world’s biggest commodity buyer decline.
Canada may see shipments of rapeseed and wheat shrink, while Australia could find China is less keen to buy its beef and cotton. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Chief Economist Robert Johansson identified livestock products as a key area for potential exports to China. Meanwhile, Australia’s agriculture minister has warned that any deal that’s unfair to other nations could end up at the World Trade Organization.
“Farm products are among the few options China has to help balance trade with the U.S.,” said Zhong Funing, a professor at the International Research Center for Food and Agricultural Economics at Nanjing Agricultural University. “We have to import more U.S. farm products while sacrificing other markets.”
While a deal is yet to be made, the two nations are close, two people familiar with the discussions said. The new target could see annual U.S. agriculture exports to China rise to about $55 billion to $60 billion, achievable in about three years, according to Rabobank International. That’s up from $24 billion in 2017. China’s commerce ministry didn’t reply to a fax seeking comment.
Here’s a look at the potential implications of a trade deal between the U.S. and China from an agricultural markets perspective:
Cereal Grains ...
Meat may also be a key ingredient in the trade war deal, with America’s beef, poultry, lamb and fish suppliers potential winners, according to Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at INTL FCStone Inc.
Brazil was China’s top supplier last year, selling almost 50 percent more meat than it did in 2017, while U.S. shipments tumbled by about the same amount. Meanwhile, Australia and Argentina also saw huge increases in sales to China.
For Marcos Jank, the head of Asia-Brazil Agro Alliance, an organization representing Brazil’s beef, chicken, pork, sugar and ethanol exporters, meat sales are a bigger concern for the Latin American country -- even more so than its soybeans.
“If the U.S. gets full access to the Chinese market, it could potentially sell chicken at a lower price than Brazilian exporters,” Jank said. “The big question is not what China will do, but how.”
more, including links, charts , video report [7:19. min.]
China’s Gov’t to Buy Pork for Reserves
U.S./China talks continue via video, with U.S. team to return to Beijing soon
By Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer
Posted on 03/07/2019 4:42 AM
Chinese authorities are planning to buy as much as 200,000 metric tons of pork for government reserves to bolster the confidence of pig farmers shaken by the African swine fever epidemic. Reports note the purchases of pork for government reserves will begin March 8. The purchases are expected to be carried out in two 100,000-ton tranches purchased during March and late April and early May. Zhue.com.cn says the first 100,000-ton purchase this month is confirmed but there are varying rumors about the total amount of reserve purchases. Observers report the history of reserve purchases they report indicates this could be the largest purchase of pork for reserves since 290,000 tons were purchased over 11 months during 2009-10. Only 10,000 tons were purchased in 2017 and 2018 and none was purchased in 2015-16.
Enforcement details for U.S./China trade deal still under discussion. “I’m perfectly satisfied that (U.S. Trade Representative Bob) Lighthizer isn’t going to give up until he gets one, but it’s still under negotiation,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told reporters on Wednesday.
Trade negotiations with China are continuing via digital video, but the plan is to send some U.S. negotiators to Beijing soon, with expectations their Chinese counterparts will come to the U.S. later this month but ahead of an expected Trump/Xi meeting, that some reports say could take until early April.
President Trump was upbeat about the trade talks with China, but acknowledged they could fall apart. “They’re either going to be a good deal or it’s not going to be a deal. But I think they’re moving on very nicely,” he said. Read what you will into that.
USDA is expanding pork cargo screenings at ports and airports to keep African swine fever (ASF) Swine Fever out of the U.S. USDA is working with Customs to add 60 new beagle teams at air and sea ports, bringing the total to 179. The ASF-prevention measures announced today by USDA include:
China reports new African swine fever outbreak in Guangxi region
Reporting by Hallie Gu and Tom Daly; editing by Christian Schmollinger, Reuters
via WHTC (MI) - March 07, 2019
BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Thursday confirmed a new outbreak of African swine fever in the Guangxi Autonomous Region, in the country's south, as the highly contagious disease spreads through the world's largest hog herd.
The outbreak in the city of Guigang killed 20 animals on a farm of 3,172 pigs, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a statement on its website.
China has reported 111 outbreaks of the disease in 28 of its provinces...