[Thurs]: With a firm tone for pork values in the U.S. and the market expecting slaughter to taper-off into the spring, the short-term uptrend may continue, said The Hightower Report… China will buy as much as 200,000 tonnes of pork for government reserves, starting tomorrow, March 8, in response to the African swine fever outbreak… [Weds]: National carcass base was 33 cents higher… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base rose 13 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 47 cents… “Monthly US exports of pork reached 526 mln pounds for December which was up 2.3% from last year and the highest since April 2018 at 547.9 mln pounds, which was the record high,” the Hightower Report said. “Exports represented 23.57% of total production. Increases for the month were seen for South Korea and China while Mexico was still sluggish”…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 3/7/2019 8:37 AM
Lean hogs - With a firm tone for pork values in the U.S. and the market expecting slaughter to taper-off into the spring, the short-term uptrend may continue, said The Hightower Report.
Allendale's current hog production estimate is at 2.510 to 2.525 million head. “Our 2.520 running guess will be 4.6 percent over last year. Despite everyone saying ‘...a change in supplies is just around the corner’ it is not a fact at this time.”
ASF in China impacts U.S.
China will buy as much as 200,000 tonnes of pork for government reserves, starting tomorrow, March 8, in response to the African swine fever outbreak.
Meanwhile, USDA announced it will be teaming up with Customs and Border Patrol to add 60 more beagle teams at U.S. airports and ports, Allendale said. “The primary purpose of these new numbers is to help sniff out illegal pork products and keep out African swine fever.”
Wed 3/6/2019 4:57 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base was 33 cents higher to $44.89/cwt.
National live was up 14 cents to $35.80
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base rose 13 cents to $45.10
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 47 cents to $63.06/cwt.
“Hog markets (were) unable to capitalize on yesterday's buying action due to a bit of pessimism about recent U.S.-China trade negotiations,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Just as much of the pressure today in the grains market was due to questions about the overall strength in the global economy and questions about U.S.-China trade negotiations, hog markets also felt the negativity.”
“Monthly US exports of pork reached 526 mln pounds for December which was up 2.3% from last year and the highest since April 2018 at 547.9 mln pounds, which was the record high,” the Hightower Report said. “Exports represented 23.57% of total production. Increases for the month were seen for South Korea and China while Mexico was still sluggish.”
Livestock mostly lower on Wednesday
Cattle markets saw mixed action with the weather outlook providing support to help offset early losses. “The market pushed lower early but the cold and wet weather outlook for the Plains continues to provide some support and the market closed slightly higher on the day with a small range,” the Hightower Report said.
A variety of factors impacted hog markets. “April hogs closed lower but well off of the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Fears that the China trade deal will take more time and weakness in other agricultural markets helped to pressure. Talk that the slaughter and production could remain high plus the premium of April to the cash helped to spark the selling.”
Grains in red on trade uncertainty
Corn markets were hearing mostly negative news, and they moved lower. “Corn prices dipped lower on technical selling and lack of fresh supportive news,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices were also pressured from spillover weakness in the soybean and wheat markets. Favorable weather in SA continues.”
“The soybean market rolled over on uncertainty about the US/China trade war situation,” Heesch said. “No solution, no rally. I think they have simply run out of gas. There was talk on Feb. 22 that China would be looking to purchase another 10.0 mmt of US soybeans, but there has been no indication of them being in the marketplace for beans, or anything else for that matter."
“Once again, it was sharply lower wheat prices that pulled corn down, as did double digit losses in soybeans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The technical picture looks uneventful today, with today's market reflecting lack of ability to move through the 10-day moving average. However, we feel farmer selling was minimal, and there was not any new negative news.”
“US weather may start to become an issue with winter conditions lingering in the upper Midwest and Plains with 5-10 inch/plus snow fall expected this week in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. These areas already have ample snow cover and early field preparation up north will be delayed.”
“A lack of new positive news, good weather out of the southern Hemisphere and another down day for wheat prices weighed on soybeans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Soymeal lost over 3.00, while soybean oil lost nearly 20 points. A weaker stock market, along with a firmer dollar, didn't help today's cause either. Small losses in energies may have weighed on beans as well.”
“No fresh comments on the US/China trade front along with no confirmation of any new purchases of US farm products has left the soy complex void of positive news,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. “There has been interest in the cash markets from Chinese buyers but most feel they are just monitoring offers.”
Wheat markets were dealing with demand and supply concerns. “The wheat market dove lower today on poor demand and ample supplies,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The average trade estimate for U.S. ending stocks is expected to be slightly higher than last month and world stocks slightly lower, but still at a pretty hefty number.”
“The Egyptian Supply Minister said the country plans to import 6.2 mln tonnes of wheat in 2019-20 compared to 6.0 mln last year,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. “Egypt's state buyer GASC rejected a Romanian wheat cargo after failing two quality tests. The cargo is being held in port and a final rejection has yet to be issued.”