[Thurs]: The beef market is strong enough to support some short term buying, The Hightower Report said… China will buy as much as 200,000 tonnes of pork for government reserves, starting tomorrow, March 8, in response to the African swine fever outbreak… [Weds]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were firm to higher… Choice was up 89 cents… Select rose 58 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there was no reportable trade for live sales, and 180 head were sold dressed for $204-205. The winter storms and very cold weather were keeping weights down, which could impact production and the markets…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Thu 3/7/2019 8:37 AM
Cattle - A wet 6 to 10 day forecast for the plains is seen as a supportive force. The 8 to 14 day forecast turns drier, but it still has below normal temperatures. The beef market is strong enough to support some short term buying, The Hightower Report said.
Bloomberg's survey of Cattle on Feed analysts is to see January placements into feedlots at 7.2 percent under last year. The range in estimates is from -4.2 percent to -13.0 percent vs. the previous year. Allendale computes 5.2 percent fewer placements than last year over the September to January period (-549,000 head). “For January marketings of finished cattle, they will run 1.9 percent over last year according to the average guess,” Allendale said.
ASF in China impacts U.S.
China will buy as much as 200,000 tonnes of pork for government reserves, starting tomorrow, March 8, in response to the African swine fever outbreak.
Meanwhile, USDA announced it will be teaming up with Customs and Border Patrol to add 60 more beagle teams at U.S. airports and ports, Allendale said. “The primary purpose of these new numbers is to help sniff out illegal pork products and keep out African swine fever.”
Wed 3/6/2019 4:57 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were firm to higher on good to moderate demand and light offerings, the USDA said.
Choice was up 89 cents to $224.93/cwt.
Select rose 58 cents to $218.37.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, there was no reportable trade, the USDA said. In Iowa-Minnesota, there was no reportable trade for live sales, and 180 head were sold dressed for $204-205.
The winter storms and very cold weather were keeping weights down, which could impact production and the markets. “With the lighter weights due to recent storms, beef production is likely to continue to come in below expectations,” the Hightower Report said.
“Lower cattle weights and constant slaughter means tighter beef supplies,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This is evidenced in the retail cutouts with choice closing 49 cents higher yesterday afternoon to $224.04 and another increase of 83 cents this morning to $224.87. Yesterday's choice value close was the highest since June 12.”
Livestock mostly lower on Wednesday
Cattle markets saw mixed action with the weather outlook providing support to help offset early losses. “The market pushed lower early but the cold and wet weather outlook for the Plains continues to provide some support and the market closed slightly higher on the day with a small range,” the Hightower Report said.
A variety of factors impacted hog markets. “April hogs closed lower but well off of the lows,” the Hightower Report said. “Fears that the China trade deal will take more time and weakness in other agricultural markets helped to pressure. Talk that the slaughter and production could remain high plus the premium of April to the cash helped to spark the selling.”
Grains in red on trade uncertainty
Corn markets were hearing mostly negative news, and they moved lower. “Corn prices dipped lower on technical selling and lack of fresh supportive news,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “Prices were also pressured from spillover weakness in the soybean and wheat markets. Favorable weather in SA continues.”
“The soybean market rolled over on uncertainty about the US/China trade war situation,” Heesch said. “No solution, no rally. I think they have simply run out of gas. There was talk on Feb. 22 that China would be looking to purchase another 10.0 mmt of US soybeans, but there has been no indication of them being in the marketplace for beans, or anything else for that matter."
“Once again, it was sharply lower wheat prices that pulled corn down, as did double digit losses in soybeans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “The technical picture looks uneventful today, with today's market reflecting lack of ability to move through the 10-day moving average. However, we feel farmer selling was minimal, and there was not any new negative news.”
“US weather may start to become an issue with winter conditions lingering in the upper Midwest and Plains with 5-10 inch/plus snow fall expected this week in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. These areas already have ample snow cover and early field preparation up north will be delayed.”
“A lack of new positive news, good weather out of the southern Hemisphere and another down day for wheat prices weighed on soybeans,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Soymeal lost over 3.00, while soybean oil lost nearly 20 points. A weaker stock market, along with a firmer dollar, didn't help today's cause either. Small losses in energies may have weighed on beans as well.”
“No fresh comments on the US/China trade front along with no confirmation of any new purchases of US farm products has left the soy complex void of positive news,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. “There has been interest in the cash markets from Chinese buyers but most feel they are just monitoring offers.”
Wheat markets were dealing with demand and supply concerns. “The wheat market dove lower today on poor demand and ample supplies,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, said. “The average trade estimate for U.S. ending stocks is expected to be slightly higher than last month and world stocks slightly lower, but still at a pretty hefty number.”
“The Egyptian Supply Minister said the country plans to import 6.2 mln tonnes of wheat in 2019-20 compared to 6.0 mln last year,” Steve Freed, VP of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services, said. “Egypt's state buyer GASC rejected a Romanian wheat cargo after failing two quality tests. The cargo is being held in port and a final rejection has yet to be issued.”