In this file:
· Traders Ho-Hum Over USDA Data Dump
… Even after being inundated with weeks of information, traders agree, the report is a snooze…
· WASDE: Corn Stocks Fall
… Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is lowered from December as beef and broiler production more than offsets slightly higher pork production. Beef production is reduced on lower cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights through late December. Pork production is raised as heavier carcass weights through late December more than offset lower-than-expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter. Broiler…
Traders Ho-Hum Over USDA Data Dump
By Sonja Begemann, Farm Journal, Seeds and Crop Production Editor
via AgWeb - Feb 8, 2019
Today, USDA dropped reports for the first time since the beginning of 2019. Even after being inundated with weeks of information, traders agree, the report is a snooze.
“The report was a dud, it was a total non-event and the markets are very quiet following the report,” says Joe Vaclavik with Standard Grain in a Facebook Live interview with AgDay host Clinton Griffiths. “There was a ton of anticipation going into this report that maybe we’d see some increased volatility, and we essentially saw the exact opposite.”
Compared to the most recent Crop Production report, USDA reduced corn yields to 176.4 bu. per acre and soybeans to 51.6 bu. per acre. Analysts anticipated this drop.
“They took two and a half bushels off the national average corn yield, and that’s getting outside of the historical norm,” says AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “It took half a bushel off the national average soybean yield which is kind of at the far end of the historical normal on a move from November into the annual production summary.”
“They took that [the reduced yield numbers] on reduction in yields out of North and South Dakota and Nebraska, which we knew were having some issues getting the crop out because of wet weather,” Vaclavik says.
On the other side of the equation is ending stocks—and corn and soybeans both saw reductions. Soybeans are predicted to end at 910 million bu.—down from 955 in the last report—and corn dropped to 1.7 billion bu. carryover.
“The market did expect a decline in the soybean ending stocks projection—and that’s what is for 2018/19 at this point a projection, not reality,” Vaclavik explains. “What they did tell us was their projection for exports to drop by 25 million bu., and a lot of people would say that number needs to come down more. USDA may do that in future reports.”
“[In corn] we’ve got some demand questions that are potentially important,” he adds...
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WASDE: Corn Stocks Fall
Source: United States Department Of Agriculture
via FarmJournal's Pork - February 8, 2019
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY
Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is lowered from December as beef and broiler production more than offsets slightly higher pork production. Beef production is reduced on lower cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights through late December. Pork production is raised as heavier carcass weights through late December more than offset lower-than-expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter. Broiler production is lowered while turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is increased slightly for 2018.
For 2019, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from December on lower expected beef, pork, and broiler production. The 2019 beef production forecast is reduced on lower projected slaughter as smaller anticipated placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are expected to result in lower fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of the year. The pork production forecast for 2019 is lowered from December on lower expected hog slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights in the first half of the year. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 2 percent above 2017 and the report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 2 percent in the first half of 2019. Forecast broiler production is lowered for 2019 on slower expected production growth in the second half of the year. The turkey production forecast is raised slightly.
For 2018 and 2019, beef import and export forecasts are lowered from December on trade data to date. Pork export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced on the lowered forecast of production and slower expected pork shipments to key trading partners. The 2018 and 2019 broiler and turkey export forecasts are raised on recent trade data and expectations of firm export demand carrying into next year.
Livestock, poultry and egg prices for 2018 are adjusted to reflect December price data. Fedcattle prices for the first quarter of 2019 are raised on current prices. Hog prices are unchanged from December. For 2019, first-half broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on prices to date.
Milk production for 2018 is lowered on available data through December. The milk production forecast for 2019 is reduced on lower expected first-half dairy cow numbers and continued slow growth in milk per cow. The 2018 and 2019 fat basis import forecasts are reduced from December on recent trade data and lower expected cheese and butterfat imports. The fat basis exports are unchanged for 2018 but the forecast is raised for 2019 primarily on strong expected demand for butter and butterfat products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2018 imports are raised on current trade data while the 2019 import forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis exports for 2018 are lowered, but the 2019 export forecast is raised from December on anticipated strong demand for nonfat dry milk (NDM).
Dairy product prices for 2018 are adjusted to reflect available December price data. For 2019, the cheese price forecast is lowered while butter, NDM, and whey price forecasts are raised from December. The Class III price for 2019 is unchanged from December while the Class IV price is raised on higher butter and NDM prices. The 2019 all milk price forecast is raised to $16.90 to $17.60 per cwt.
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower imports, production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, and stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.420 billion bushels, down 206 million on reduction in yield to 176.4 bushels per acre. Harvested area is down fractionally.
Total corn use is down 165 million bushels to 14.865 billion. FSI use is lowered 40 million bushels, reflecting reductions to corn used for ethanol and other industrial use. For ethanol, the reduction is based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the months of December and January. Other FSI use is lowered 15 million bushels with lower projections for high fructose corn syrup and glucose and dextrose. Feed and residual use is lowered 125 million bushels to 5.375 billion based on a smaller crop and indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 46 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at a midpoint of $3.60 per bushel.
Sorghum production for 2018/19 is estimated slightly higher at 365 million bushels, as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than offsets a decline in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are forecast at $3.35 per bushel, down 5 cents at the midpoint.
Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast 1.5 million tons lower to 1,372.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for increased production and consumption, and marginally lower trade. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for Argentina, China, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for South Africa and Mexico. Argentina’s corn production is up based on higher expected area and yield, with abundant rainfall and benign temperatures over the past two months boosting yield prospects. China and Ukraine are higher based on the latest official statistics. South Africa is lowered as heat and dryness during the month of January, particularly in the western producing areas, reduces yield prospects.
Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include increased corn exports for Argentina and Ukraine, partially offset by reductions for South Africa and Mexico. For 2017/18, Argentina’s exports are reduced with a partially offsetting increase for Brazil based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing years that both started in March 2018. Imports are raised for South Africa for the marketing years that both started in May 2018. For 2018/19, imports are raised for Chile but lowered for Venezuela. China’s barley imports are reduced, while barley exports are lowered for Australia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Argentina and China. Global corn stocks, at 309.8 million, are up 1.0 million.
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