[Fri]: The market will need to find a low enough price level to clear the short-term pork supply without help from China in the short-term, as China imports are not expected to pick up steam until the second half of the year… Tyson Foods president and CEO, said that African swine fever may be a sizable upside benefit to its pork business, and that the situation in China is likely a little worse than what is being reported…  [Thurs]: National carcass base was 23 cents lower… Iowa-Minnesota fell 84 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon was down 44 cents… “Pork values remain soft, and cash hog values are soft as well,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This is indicative of a plentiful domestic supply and should keep some pressure on prices in the near term. Meanwhile, production speed for the month of February is expected to be slower than last month”… “Absorbing the record supply is difficult with the tariffs on U.S. pork exports,” according to the Hightower Report…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

 

Fri 2/8/2019 9:07 AM

 

Lean hogs - The market will need to find a low enough price level to clear the short-term pork supply without help from China in the short-term, as China imports are not expected to pick up steam until the second half of the year, according to The Hightower Report.

 

Pork sales for the week ending Dec. 27 came to 3,788 tonnes, according to newly released USDA data. Included in that pork number is 15,200 tonnes to China. Mainland China now accounts for 23 percent of all 2019 delivery bookings, Allendale said.

 

The lean hog index is near 2019 lows. The index dropped to 57.16 yesterday. Today's LHI, covering cash hogs through Wednesday, will drop to 56.89. That will be the lowest LHI since Jan. 10, Allendale said.

 

International strife helps U.S. livestock industry

 

Noel White, Tyson Foods president and CEO, said that African swine fever may be a sizable upside benefit to its pork business, and that the situation in China is likely a little worse than what is being reported. White made the statements in an earnings call with investors, Allendale said.

 

On the cattle side, heavy rains and severe flooding in northeast Australia have resulted in thousands of cattle deaths, CHS Hedging said.

 

Thu 2/7/2019 4:55 PM

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:

 

National carcass base was 23 cents lower to $49.52/cwt.

National live was down 16 cents to $39.14

Iowa-Minnesota fell 84 cents to $48.63

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon was down 44 cents to $65.17/cwt.

 

Weak values continued to pull hog markets down.

 

“Pork values remain soft, and cash hog values are soft as well,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This is indicative of a plentiful domestic supply and should keep some pressure on prices in the near term. Meanwhile, production speed for the month of February is expected to be slower than last month.”

 

The technical aspects of the hog market also indicated negative short-term trends.

 

“The market's close below the nine-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative,” the Hightower Report said. “The gap lower price action on the day session chart is a bearish indicator for trend.”

 

Cattle quiet; tariffs drag on hogs

 

A lack of movement in beef values was leading to quiet activity in cattle markets Thursday.

 

“The cash wires have been very quiet so far this morning, and beef values have been relatively stagnant,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Prices are still under the influence of last week's bearish key reversals, with retail beef and cash trade the main sources of support since then.”

 

Tariff and export issues continued to be a drag on hog markets.

 

“Absorbing the record supply is difficult with the tariffs on U.S. pork exports,” according to the Hightower Report. “U.S. pork export sales for the week ending Dec. 27 came in at 3,800 tonnes, compared with the average of the previous four weeks of 23,975.”

 

Trade rumors shake markets

 

Trade worries over the approaching U.S.-China trade deadline were a driver for markets.

 

“Word that the President of the U.S. will not meet with the President of China before the March 1 trade deadline and that U.S. and China remained far apart in a trade deal weighed on prices,” said Steve Freed, vice president of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services.

 

Grain markets will be watching the much-anticipated USDA WASDE report, due to be released Friday. It will include some information from during the government shutdown period.

 

“Ideas are that the USDA data could be friendly for the corn market,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, reported

 

Corn

 

European concerns were part of the reason for lower corn markets today.

 

“Concern about the Europe economy offered early resistance,” said Steve Freed, vice president of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services. “The fact March corn futures traded back below a key moving average also slowed the up momentum and turned momentum lower.”

 

Managed funds continued to show optimism about corn, likely due to the supply and demand picture.

 

“Managed funds continue to be net long corn futures,” Freed said. “Some feel this due to talk of lower U.S. supply and increased export demand for U.S. corn.”

 

Soybeans

 

“Key to tomorrow's report will be first, the USDA estimate of U.S. 2018 soybean crop,” according to Steve Freed with ADM Investor Services. “Next will be the USDA Feb. 1 estimate of Brazil and Argentina 2019 soybean crops. Next will be the USDA estimate of China soybean imports. Finally, how all of this impacts U.S. and world carryout.”

 

Data showed soybean exports were down significantly, as expected.

 

“While no surprise, the November census data showed soybean exports at 5.067 million tonnes, down 45 percent from last year’s 9.189 million and the lowest November soybean sales since 2011,” the Hightower Report said.

 

Wheat

 

Wheat dropped today on a number of factors.

 

“The wheat market got spanked today on technical selling, poor demand and renewed worries about the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China,” said Ami Heesch with CHS Hedging. “More wicked weather (is predicted) for the Southern Plains area this weekend and next week.”

 

But recent export data was good news for wheat.

 

“Export sales for the week ending Dec. 27 were reported this morning at 593,000 metric tons,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This was up 15 percent from the previous week and up 3 percent from the previous 4-week average. Considering that this was a holiday week, the fact that past export sales totals were beaten was a very positive development.”

 

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