[Fri]: heavy rains and severe flooding in northeast Australia have resulted in thousands of cattle deaths… [Thurs]: Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower… Choice was down 86 cents… Select fell 84 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, and 219 head sold dressed for $198. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no live sales, and 609 sold dressed for $198-199… A lack of movement in beef values was leading to quiet activity in cattle markets Thursday…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 2/8/2019 9:07 AM
Cattle - News from delayed USDA data shows that beef export sales for 2018 delivery ran only 3,179 tonnes for the week ending Dec. 27, Allendale said
More news is expected to impact markets in the coming weeks. The USDA’s cattle and cattle on feed reports will be issued on Feb. 28 and Feb. 22, respectively. The January Cold Storage report will be issued on Feb. 22. The February CS report will be out on March 7, Allendale said.
The beef market still looks vulnerable to a short-term correction to the downside because of short-term demand, said the Hightower Report. The overbought condition of the market and a relatively dry short-term weather outlook for the Plains may spark some long liquidation selling, Hightower reported.
International strife helps U.S. livestock industry
Noel White, Tyson Foods president and CEO, said that African swine fever may be a sizable upside benefit to its pork business, and that the situation in China is likely a little worse than what is being reported. White made the statements in an earnings call with investors, Allendale said.
On the cattle side, heavy rains and severe flooding in northeast Australia have resulted in thousands of cattle deaths, CHS Hedging said.
Thu 2/7/2019 4:55 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were lower on light to moderate demand and offerings.
Choice was down 86 cents to $216.71/cwt.
Select fell 84 cents to $211.53.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported no live sales, and 219 head sold dressed for $198. In Iowa-Minnesota, there were no live sales, and 609 sold dressed for $198-199.
“February live cattle have so far held their 10- and 20-day moving average support levels today, while the best traded April contract has fallen below its 10 and 20-day moving average support levels,” Stewart-Peterson said. “March feeders are mostly steady, unable at this point to test their 10- or 20-day moving average resistance levels.”
Restaurants were slowly using up their meat supplies they didn’t sell during the bitter cold week. “The market closed slightly lower after choppy and two-sided trade,” the Hightower Report said. “The market still appears vulnerable to a short-term correction. …There could be more weakness in the beef market as the restaurant industry slowly works off meat which was not sold last week.”
Cattle quiet; tariffs drag on hogs
A lack of movement in beef values was leading to quiet activity in cattle markets Thursday.
“The cash wires have been very quiet so far this morning, and beef values have been relatively stagnant,” Stewart-Peterson said. “Prices are still under the influence of last week's bearish key reversals, with retail beef and cash trade the main sources of support since then.”
Tariff and export issues continued to be a drag on hog markets.
“Absorbing the record supply is difficult with the tariffs on U.S. pork exports,” according to the Hightower Report said. “U.S. pork export sales for the week ending Dec. 27 came in at 3,800 tonnes, compared with the average of the previous four weeks of 23,975.”
Trade rumors shake markets
Trade worries over the approaching U.S.-China trade deadline were a driver for markets.
“Word that the President of the U.S. will not meet with the President of China before the March 1 trade deadline and that U.S. and China remained far apart in a trade deal weighed on prices,” said Steve Freed, vice president of Grain Research for ADM Investor Services.
Grain markets will be watching the much-anticipated USDA WASDE report, due to be released Friday. It will include some information from during the government shutdown period.
“Ideas are that the USDA data could be friendly for the corn market,” Ami Heesch, with CHS Hedging, reported
European concerns were part of the reason for lower corn markets today.
“Concern about the Europe economy offered early resistance,” said Steve Freed, vice president of Grain Research with ADM Investor Services. “The fact March corn futures traded back below a key moving average also slowed the up momentum and turned momentum lower.”
Managed funds continued to show optimism about corn, likely due to the supply and demand picture.
“Managed funds continue to be net long corn futures,” Freed said. “Some feel this due to talk of lower U.S. supply and increased export demand for U.S. corn.”
“Key to tomorrow's report will be first, the USDA estimate of U.S. 2018 soybean crop,” according to Steve Freed with ADM Investor Services. “Next will be the USDA Feb. 1 estimate of Brazil and Argentina 2019 soybean crops. Next will be the USDA estimate of China soybean imports. Finally, how all of this impacts U.S. and world carryout.”
Data showed soybean exports were down significantly, as expected.
“While no surprise, the November census data showed soybean exports at 5.067 million tonnes, down 45 percent from last year’s 9.189 million and the lowest November soybean sales since 2011,” the Hightower Report said.
Wheat dropped today on a number of factors.
“The wheat market got spanked today on technical selling, poor demand and renewed worries about the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China,” said Ami Heesch with CHS Hedging. “More wicked weather (is predicted) for the Southern Plains area this weekend and next week.”
But recent export data was good news for wheat.
“Export sales for the week ending Dec. 27 were reported this morning at 593,000 metric tons,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This was up 15 percent from the previous week and up 3 percent from the previous 4-week average. Considering that this was a holiday week, the fact that past export sales totals were beaten was a very positive development.”
Cattle futures waiting for cash trade
By Meghan Grebner, Brownfield
February 7, 2019
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, cattle futures traded in a narrow range ahead of widespread direct cash business, lack of support in wholesale values, and ahead of the reports coming out on Friday which will give the industry the first real look at supply and demand numbers since the government shutdown. Feeder cattle found some support in the days weaker move in corn. February live cattle closed $.10 lower at $126.30 and April live cattle closed $.32 lower at $126.82. March feeder cattle closed $.07 higher at $143.25 and April feeder cattle closed $.02 higher at $144.87.
Direct cash cattle trade didn’t improve much throughout the day. There were a handful of deals reported in Iowa at $198 and $199 dressed and in Nebraska at $198. Bids are at $121 live and $196 dressed. Asking prices are holding firm at $126 to $127 live and $202 to $205 dressed. Deals at Wednesday’s Fed Cattle Exchange were marked at $124 and that could set the mark for business this week. But, it looks like significant trade volume will be delayed until sometime on Friday.
At the Bloomfield, Iowa market, receipts were up from the most recent sale and down on the year. Compared to the sale two weeks ago, feeder steers were mostly steady...