In this file:

 

·         China Back Buying More U.S. Soy Just Days After Last Spree

    Cofco and Sinograin buy several million tons of American soy

    Purchases are a sign China is working to ease trade tensions

 

·         How many soybean acres do we need in 2019?

Although the number of soybean acres may decrease, some farmers will plant more in order to reach the break even point.

 

 

 

China Back Buying More U.S. Soy Just Days After Last Spree

 

    Cofco and Sinograin buy several million tons of American soy

    Purchases are a sign China is working to ease trade tensions

 

Bloomberg News

February 5, 2019

 

China’s back buying more U.S. soybeans just days after the last round of purchases by the world’s top importer.

 

State-run buyer Cofco Corp. bought almost 1 million metric tons of the oilseed, while Sinograin purchased more than a million tons, the two companies said in separate statements on Tuesday. That follows an announcement on Saturday that they had purchased 2 million tons from America after officials from the two countries met in Washington for trade negotiations.

 

On Monday, the Chinese state-run companies were seeking soybean for shipment from both ports in the U.S. Gulf and the Pacific Northwest, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. The cargoes sought were for shipment around the summer months, the people said.

 

American exporters sold 2.603 million tons of soybeans to China for delivery by Aug. 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday. That’s the third-largest daily transaction in the agency’s records. On Monday, the USDA reported sales of 612,000 tons for the same period.

 

While the amount is still just a fraction of the 30 million to 35 million tons that China typically buys from America in a year, the frequency of the purchases may give U.S. farmers some cheer. It’s also a sign that China is willing to work toward ending trade hostilities between the two nations as President Donald Trump pressures counterpart Xi Jinping to buy more American goods to close a trade gap.

 

Sinograin is taking steps to implement the mutual understanding agreed on by China and the U.S., Sinograin’s spokesman said on the phone on Tuesday...

 

more, including links, table, chart

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/china-back-buying-more-u-s-soybeans-just-days-after-last-spree

 

 

How many soybean acres do we need in 2019?

Although the number of soybean acres may decrease, some farmers will plant more in order to reach the break even point.

 

By Todd Hubbs, University of Illinois

via Corn+Soybean Digest - Feb 05, 2019

 

We have reached the time of the year where speculation about acreage for the 2019 crops begins in earnest.  While the number of acres planted to soybeans appears set to decrease, current projections indicate an intention to plant significantly more acres than necessary to reach breakeven prices in Illinois under current consumption and stock level forecasts.

 

Projections by industry analysts place 2019 soybean planted acreage in a range from 84.5 to 86.5 million acres.  A reduction in soybean acreage from the 89.1 million acres planted in 2018 seems probable.  We currently project soybean planted acreage at 85.7 million acres.  An analysis of the number of soybean acres necessary in 2019 to produce a 2019-20 marketing year price for soybeans near the cost of production may be revealing.  This analysis uses a 2019 crop budget on high productivity farmland for soybeans following corn in central Illinois.  A land cost of $260 per acre and $363 per acre non-land costs brings total costs to $623 per acre.  Assuming a 63-bushel per acre yield, the breakeven price under this cost structure comes in at $9.80 per bushel.  The seasonal average price for soybeans in Illinois averaged near 27 cents per bushel higher than the national farm price over the last three years.  Assuming this holds next marketing year, a national average farm price near $9.53 per bushel is necessary during the 2019-20 marketing year to reach breakeven in central Illinois.

 

In 2016-17, the seasonal average farm price was $9.47 at an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 7.1 percent.  We assume an ending stocks-to-use ratio near 7.1 percent creates the scenario necessary to reach soybean prices in the mid-$9.00 range for 2019-20.  In the latest WASDE report, the USDA projected soybean stocks at the start of the 2019-20 marketing year at 955 million bushels.  At 52.1 bushels, the current 2018 forecast for U.S. average soybean yield is widely expected to move lower in the final USDA production estimate.  By assuming a 2018 final yield of 51.8 bushels per acre, ending stocks of 929 million bushels result from the consumption level at the current forecast of 4.107 billion bushels.

 

Soybean use projections for the 2019-20 marketing year suffer from uncertainty regarding trade negotiations with China...

 

more

https://www.farmprogress.com/planting/how-many-soybean-acres-do-we-need-2019