In this file:
· China pledges big soybean buy
· Anticipating a shift in soybean acres
China pledges big soybean buy
By Ryan McCrimmon, POLITICO
With help from Taylor Miller Thomas, Theodoric Meyer and Helena Bottemiller Evich
— China agreed to buy 5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans after the two sides concluded the latest round of negotiations in Washington, though a “comprehensive” trade deal still has to be hammered out. Top U.S. negotiators are expected to visit China for another round of discussions in mid-February.
— More good news for soybean farmers? USDA doled out $200 million to help ag organizations develop foreign markets for U.S. farm goods, the third branch of its trade relief program for farmers and ranchers burned by retaliatory tariffs. Once again, the biggest batch of market development funds are devoted to assisting soy exporters.
— The merger continues: Bayer and Monsanto are combining their lobbying teams now that they’re under the same roof. A handful of firms filed papers to end their representation of Monsanto, and the agribusiness has moved to deregister its own in-house lobbyists...
CHINA PROMISES MAJOR U.S. SOYBEAN PURCHASES: After two days of high-stakes trade talks ended Thursday in Washington, China apparently surprised U.S. officials by announcing it would buy another 5 million metric tons of American soybeans. The commitment means China will significantly ramp up its U.S. soy purchases after several medium-size sales in December — though less significantly than indicated by initial reports that China would buy 5 million tons per day.
Crunching the numbers: In October 2017, a peak sales month, the U.S. exported 5.9 million metric tons to China, according to USDA data.
Still, there’s much more catching up to do after the massive dip in soybean sales in the current 2018-19 marketing year, which started Sept. 1. For comparison, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled 27.7 million tons in the 2017-18 marketing year, and 36.2 million in 2016-17, driven by the peak fall months.
— Timeline: It’s unclear how quickly China will buy the additional 5 million tons. A White House aide told our colleagues it wouldn’t necessarily be a single purchase. It’s also unclear whether the millions of purchases China made in December, after the 90-day trade truce was called, are part of that buy.
Trump’s take ...
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He ...
Bottom line ...
MORE JOY FOR SOY ...
Anticipating a shift in soybean acres
By Meghan Grebner, Brownfield
February 4, 2019
The combination of high yields and the ongoing trade spat with China is helping push soybean stock to record levels. That points to a likely decline in soybean acres from a year ago.
In this Managing for Profit, an ag economist pontificates just exactly where those changes might occur.
AUDIO: Managing for Profit, David Widmar [3:03 min.]