[Fri]: If tariffs are dropped, some U.S. pork could begin to flow to China to make up for losses due to African Swine Fever, according to The Hightower Report. “Pork prices in China are still consolidating so there is no pressure.” It’s a wait and see game for now, the report said… [Thurs]: National carcass base fell 2 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell 95 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 79 cents… Trends in slaughter rates and production could mean increasing hog prices going forward. “Slaughter this week is running about 91,000 head ahead of a year ago, but production is expected to slow, along with the seasonal trend, which will be supportive of the pork values,” Stewart-Peterson said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 1/11/2019 9:03 AM
Lean hogs - The Alberta Pork Producers Development Corporation announced the first finding of PEDv in Alberta. Found at a 400 head hog operation, this ignited a lot of talk in the market, Allendale said, but had no impact on pricing.
If tariffs are dropped, some U.S. pork could begin to flow to China to make up for losses due to African Swine Fever, according to The Hightower Report. “Pork prices in China are still consolidating so there is no pressure.” It’s a wait and see game for now, the report said.
Livestock movement slows
Precipitation today and tomorrow in the Southern Plains will likely bring snow, sleet, and rain depending on local temperatures. “Cattle in these regions won't be thrilled with the weather, but this shouldn't be a major market moving event,” Allendale said.
The livestock market has stalled out, so there might be some profit taking coming. A lot of people are optimistic that higher prices may be coming but we will have to wait and see, said Blue Line Futures.
Lower pork production has started, and should continue to fall into summer on a seasonal basis. Production should still be slightly over last year though by our estimates, Allendale said.
Thu 1/10/2019 4:57 PM
In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;
National carcass base fell 2 cents to $51.14/cwt.
National Live fell 10 cents to $39.95
Iowa-Minnesota carcass base fell 95 cents to $51.10
USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon rose 79 cents to $70.46/cwt.
Trends in slaughter rates and production could mean increasing hog prices going forward. “Slaughter this week is running about 91,000 head ahead of a year ago, but production is expected to slow, along with the seasonal trend, which will be supportive of the pork values,” Stewart-Peterson said.
“News of high weights and weak pork markets helped to pressure the market early,” the Hightower Report said. “A jump in belly prices supported a surge higher on pork prices to help support.”
Trade progress helps hogs
Cattle were slightly higher after a day of choppy trading. “The 5-day forecast for the Plains is still dry except for eastern half of Kansas and Oklahoma,” the Hightower Report said. “The market continues to trade near contract highs as beef prices have held up well above last year and two years ago at this time of the year even though supply is clearly higher.”
Stewart-Peterson said the China trade talk progress helped hog markets, although the lack of full details and plans kept the increases slight. “Progress and trade talks with China is also supportive, though gains were limited today due to the lack of new Chinese purchases and lack of definitive promises of additional pork purchases.”
Beans see pressure from Brazil estimates
Soybeans were down on news from Brazil. “Soybeans traded sharply lower,” Steve Freed with ADM Investor Services said. “Some link the selling to a private estimate of the Brazil 2019 soybean crop near 119 mmt. This was above previous estimates closer to 116.”
Corn was also down as the lack of a clear resolution to U.S.-China trade disputes affected markets. “There may have been some long liquidation after the fact U.S. has yet to announce the next step in trade negotiations with China concerning trade,” Freed said. “Some had hoped that once a deal is done China might come in and buy US corn and ethanol.”
Without a clear positive direction for corn, traders have been sitting out or making small moves, Stewart-Peterson said. “This lack of upward momentum may have been enough to have traders moving to the sideline. As prices continue to trade in a sideways pattern, traders have a tendency to take small profits by selling rallies and buying dips.”
A few different factors have kept analysts from being too optimistic about corn prices going forward, including weakness in ethanol. “Weak ethanol margins and continued U.S. farmer selling above the market on rallies could limit the upside in prices,” Steve Freed with ADM Investor Services said.
In addition to the news from Brazil, more developments from China may have contributed to Thursday’s price drop for beans. “Talk that China reserve buying group was looking for Argentina June-July soybean prices also may have weighed on prices,” Steve Freed with ADM Investor Services said.
The ongoing government shutdown has also affected trading. “With the government shutdown it’s really difficult to get correct reports, and it’s affecting the market,” Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “That’s why we’re seeing the ebb and flow of the markets just back and forth.”
“Wheat also fell, but that has some overflow form the corn and soybeans,” McGathey said. “But the GASC was buying big from Russia, and that basically just kind of dashed some of the hopes for U.S. wheat. We were hoping to get a little piece of that action.”
Analysts are also watching weather issues and their impact on the wheat market. “Recent rains have traders expecting production levels to decline,” the Hightower Report said. “The Rosario exchange has Argentine wheat production at 18.7 million tonnes with rains continuing to delay harvesting in Buenos Aires.”