In this file:


·         More Downside Than Upside Risk Ahead For Soybeans

·         Soybeans, corn down on lack of export confirmation

·         Progress in China Trade Talks, but it Won’t Fix U.S. Soy Balance Sheet



More Downside Than Upside Risk Ahead For Soybeans


By Anna-Lisa Laca, Farm Journal's Milk, Online and Business Editor

via AgWeb - January 8, 2019


Despite the trade talks happening between U.S. and Chinese negotiators in Beijing this week, Ann Duignan managing director for JP Morgan says she sees more downside risk for soybeans than she sees upside potential.


“At the end of the day, exports are down 42%, this marketing year and the window of opportunity to export to China is closing quickly,” she told Chip Flory on AgriTalk. “With the negotiations going on this week there's high expectations that maybe the China would lift the tariff on soybeans and I’m kind of sitting here in New York scratching my head going, ‘who cares,’ the exports aren't coming back this marketing year, in our view, at least not the 42%.”


Duignan is admittingly more cautious than a lot of people including John Deere, AGCO and CNH Industrial.


“To me, soybeans have significantly more downside risk, an upside risk in my view,” she said.


Soybean prices are holding up because of the weather situation developing in South America, according to Flory...





Soybeans, corn down on lack of export confirmation


By John Perkins, Brownfield

January 8, 2019


Soybeans were modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. The initial round of trade discussions with China ended with talk of more new export sales, but no confirmation because of the current shutdown of the federal government. Weekly export inspections next Monday could start to provide some clues. Reports out of the meeting were generally positive and there have been reports China has committed to buying more U.S. ag goods, with Cabinet level meetings expected to occur later this month. Beijing did approve five GMO products that could signal a willingness to make some concessions. The trade is also watching South American weather, with most near-term forecasts for Brazil showing beneficial rainfall against drier longer-term outlooks. Soybean meal and oil were weak, following beans.


Corn was modestly lower on profit taking and technical selling. Corn is also watching South American weather and waiting for any new news about trade negotiations. Trade talks between the U.S., the European Union, and Japan are set to start Wednesday and there have been more unconfirmed rumblings about China buying U.S. corn. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks report is out Wednesday. The industry continues to be concerned about margins and potential delays in the implementation of year-round E15 use. U.S. ethanol, DDGS, and sorghum are also on the potential purchase list by Beijing.


The wheat complex...





Progress in China Trade Talks, but it Won’t Fix U.S. Soy Balance Sheet


By Andy Eubank, Hoosier Ag Today

Jan 8, 2019


The U.S. and China are at the table in Beijing talking trade and signs a deal could be reached have come from China the last two days. One of those signs is adding a third day of talks Wednesday. INTL FC Stone chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman says the additional day of negotiating suggests positive developments, but he cautions any trade deal reached will not fix the current U.S. soybean balance sheet.


“It’s not going to fix it at all,” he said. “There are simply too many soybeans in the world. Obviously, we’ll take any business we can get, that is very important, that we have access to China once again. But, what does that mean when both South America and North America are over-producing soybeans? It means that they have to fight to get China’s business and that means a race to the bottom perhaps, pricewise, until we get a price that absorbs that demand and discourages production.”


He says another sign of progress in the talks is the report from Reuters Tuesday that China has approved five genetically modified crops for import.


“That’s seen as positive,” he told HAT...