In this file:


·         Global pork prices in flux due to ASF

·         China ‘will struggle to contain ASF in 2019′



Global pork prices in flux due to ASF


Source: China Daily

via The Pig Site - 09 January 2019


China is entering the year of the pig on an apt note - its huge pork industry is sending ripples across the global commodities chain.


Traders, analysts, farmers and other stakeholders are closely monitoring how China is managing the African swine fever cases. China is the world's biggest pork producer and consumer, and ASF's impact on its pork supply and demand will determine price trends in the global meat and oilseeds trade.


According to analysts interviewed by China Daily, prices of soybeans - the main ingredient in livestock feed – may soften owing to slower demand as China culls thousands of pigs to bring the disease under control.


International hog prices, however, are expected to go up as China is seen to import pork to fill the potential shortfall in domestic supply.


"It's possible that demand for animal feed would decline (because of the ASF outbreaks). It could (also encourage China) to import more pork," said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist of the London-based research firm Capital Economics...





China ‘will struggle to contain ASF in 2019′


By Alistair Driver, Pig World (UK)

January 9, 2019


China will struggle to contain of African swine fever in 2019, with more than 100 cases have now been recorded across 23 provinces in China, according to AHDB analyst Bethan Wilkins.


The majority of cases have hit small producers with poorer biosecurity, although recently a herd of 74,000 head was also affected. Several hundred thousand pigs have died of the disease or been culled, although with a pig population of over 400 million head, this is yet to make any material dent in swine stocks, Ms Wilkins said.


In the first of a series of articles exploring different aspect of the situation, including the global market implications, she said the Chinese pig industry has been ‘significantly disrupted’ by the outbreak.


“Provinces where there are active outbreaks, and those surrounding, are subject to restrictions on live transport. This is particularly problematic as during the industry’s recent modernisation programme, many pig farms were relocated to remote Northern areas. However, most abattoirs are situated in the south near more populous areas, necessitating long-distance transport to slaughter,” Ms Wilkins wrote.


The transport restrictions have split the market in two, with areas of surplus in the North while key demand areas in the South suffer supply shortages. Reports indicate pork prices have become similarly polarised, she added.


The government has recently tried to alleviate this situation by easing some conditions...


more, including chart