[Tues]: Forecasts in the near term for the Plains are mixed”… futures… received support from news that the number of cattle offered for sale was down 6,200 from a week earlier, which could lend support to cash prices… [Mon]: Choice fell 23 cents… Select went up 55 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 707 head sold live at $122.50, with no dressed sales. In Iowa-Minnesota 78 head sold dressed $185-195, with no live sales… with the cash market coming in around $123 last week, that put in a bit of a floor for the market…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Tue 1/8/2019 9:04 AM
Cattle - Beef pushed seasonally lower the past two years going into early February, The Hightower report said. Due to this, “the market seems vulnerable to some long liquidation selling, but this has yet to occur.”
Forecasts in the near term for the Plains are mixed,” Stewart-Peterson said. “This makes it unclear if cattle and feedlots will be gaining weight easily or not. Heavier weights will pressure beef prices, then packer margins and, in turn, futures prices, while lighter weights will support choice beef values, drive up packers margins, support cash trade and, in turn, future.
Chinese hog farmers cut profit estimates
Major Chinese Hog Farmers sharply cut 2018 profit estimates after fast-spreading African swine fever hit prices and demand for pork in the world's largest hog producing area. Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd. warned of 2018 net profit between 3.9 – 4.0 billion yuan (down 40% from 6.75 billion yuan last year), Allendale said.
Live Cattle & Feeder Futures rebounded sharply after five straight declining sessions on a round of strong bargain buying. Cattle futures also received support from news that the number of cattle offered for sale was down 6,200 from a week earlier, which could lend support to cash prices. Allendale said.
Mon 1/7/2019 4:30 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell 23 cents to $214.28/cwt.
Select went up 55 cents to $208.21.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 707 head sold live at $122.50, with no dressed sales. In Iowa-Minnesota 78 head sold dressed $185-195, with no live sales.
“We started out a little softer in the cattle complex,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said during trade today. “A lot of that was continued pressure from the back half of last week.” Sloup added that with the cash market coming in around $123 last week, that put in a bit of a floor for the market.
Cattle rebounded from the oversold action on Friday, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities, said. She noted that with slaughter numbers expected to decline through the month of January could give the market a boost as well.
Cattle charge up Monday
Cattle’s higher close today “is a bullish technical development,” The Hightower Report said. “Buyers turned active on the break, and the market closed sharply higher on the day.”
Hogs, meanwhile, were quiet as traders wait for news from China. The quiet day caused prices to slip a little bit, but “the cash market seems to be stabilizing,” The Hightower Report said. However, there are concerns over the short-term hog supply.
China makes soybean purchase
China made its third notable U.S. soybean purchase in a month, Reuters is reporting. In the article, both traders said the purchase was at least three cargoes (180,000 tons), with one saying the “total was closer to 15 cargoes, or about 900,000 tons.”
President Trump plans to address the nation on National Security tomorrow, in the midst of the government shutdown.
Despite hitting a 2 ½ week high today, corn fell slightly today. “The market continues to find mild support from optimism over the U.S./China trade talks with traders anticipating China to be a of U.S. corn or ethanol if tariffs come down,” The Hightower Report said.
With negative U.S. ethanol margins, there are concerns demand for corn could start to fall, Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. He added, however, that there are higher U.S. beef and pork numbers which “could help corn feed use.”
Weekly inspections of corn finished below expectations this week, coming in at 501,541 tons.
Today was the first day of meetings between the U.S. and China trade delegates, and there were “positive remarks,” Steve Freed of ADM Investor Services said. There were also concerns about dry weather in Brazil, and wet weather in Argentina driving the market, he said.
“Soybeans are once again turning into a weather market,” Jack Scoville of the Price Futures Group said. He noted that South American weather has been “less than perfect this year” being wet in Argentina and southern Brazil and dry in western Parana and parts of Mato Grosso an Mato Grosso do Sul.
Soybean inspections finished within the estimate range today, coming in at 673,172 tons.
No news is troubling the wheat market, Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities said. “Without any information, it makes it difficult for us to move on where the direction of the wheat price is going to go,” she said. “We are also waiting for the winter wheat seeding reports, and that’s not going to be around for a while. We are flying blind right now.”
The wheat market fell slightly today “on technical selling and below expected wheat inspections,” CHS Hedging’s Michael Headlee said.
Wheat inspections came in at 260,134 tons, below the estimates of 350,000-600,000.