… This week has stayed mostly steady in the cash market, which hasn’t triggered the bears or bulls to have much excitement, The Hightower Report said… [Thurs]; Choice fell 15 cents… Select went down $1.53… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 3,989 head sold live at $122-123, with 38 head sold dressed at $195. In Iowa/Minnesota, 36 head sold live at $122.50, while 690 head sold dressed at $193… the premium brought by the winter storm over the past week across the plains has started to fade, but the cash at $123 keeps a floor in the market…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 1/4/2019 8:37 AM
Cattle - This week has stayed mostly steady in the cash market, which hasn’t triggered the bears or bulls to have much excitement, The Hightower Report said. That could have helped to slow the technical selling that caused a short-term low yesterday.
“As marketings pick back up after the holidays, a short-term surge in slaughter supply availability will likely continue to pressure cash, retail beef values, and in turn futures markets,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Cattle has hope for bulls, hogs positive
A late bounce in cattle yesterday “leaves some hope for the bulls and the surging open interest is also a positive force,” The Hightower Report said. They noted that negative forces will be coming from the weather and the possibility beef prices could trend lower.
Cash markets “seem to have stopped going down and traders are hopeful that China will emerge as a strong buyer of U.S. pork soon,” The Hightower Report said. “The jump in open interest and improved technical action in June hogs are positive forces.”
Thu 1/3/2019 4:54 PM
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were steady on Choice and lower on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings, USDA said.
Choice fell 15 cents to $216.49/cwt.
Select went down $1.53 to $209.39.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, the USDA reported 3,989 head sold live at $122-123, with 38 head sold dressed at $195. In Iowa/Minnesota, 36 head sold live at $122.50, while 690 head sold dressed at $193.
Both live and feeders continued to tumble today after resistance, Michael Headlee of CHS Hedging said. He noted that the nearby feeders fell below the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The February live contract has also fallen $235 since hitting a contract high on Dec. 31.
There was pressure coming into the cattle market today, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. He noted that the premium brought by the winter storm over the past week across the plains has started to fade, but the cash at $123 keeps a floor in the market.
Hogs mostly up, cattle falls
Hog prices were able to find more room to “run higher” as futures went up for the third session in a row, Michael Headlee of CHS Hedging said. This marked the second day in a row February hogs traded above the 200-day moving average, but closed just below.
The cattle market is “still under the negative technical influence of the key reversal on Monday” sparking selling, The Hightower Report said. With a dry and warm weather forecast coming into the plains, increased marketings are expected, and that could cause lower beef prices.
Markets getting back to normal trade
“We are through the dreadful holiday trade,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. “We are getting a little more participation, which means more volume. We look for volume to confirm price and we are moving higher with more volume.”
The government shutdown, now in its 13th day, is stressing farmers as it is affecting assistance and loan payments, Reuters said.
Technical buying helped the corn market go up today, Michael Headlee of CHS Hedging said. “The weather forecast in Argentina still calls for favorable rains to cover most regions late in the weekend through the middle of the next week.”
Corn futures have been following soybeans and wheat in the past sessions, “but today’s move may give it a more technical move to the upside, especially if front month futures can trade above the $3.80 level,” Stewart-Peterson said.
Looking ahead, ADM Investor Services said that trade is “still looking for a slight drop in U.S. 2018 soybean crop, record Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks and the potential for the USDA to lower the estimate of the 2019 Brazil soybean crop estimate.”
“With November beans trading around the $9.50 range, it may lead us to having another strong year of soybean acres, given some of the higher nitrogen prices that we are seeing … for corn production,” Janelle Brinksneader from The Andersons said.
Higher European prices may have given wheat a bid today, as a recent bounce in Russian prices (and buyers not willing to pay that higher price) caused the prices in the EU to go up, ADM Investor Services said. They also noted that Argentinian wheat could be seeing lower wheat quality and rumors China may have interest in U.S. grains, such as wheat, are helping support.
There is concern that “hard red wheat acres in Kansas, Texas, Nebraska and Oklahoma will not increase as much as traders originally thought,” The Hightower Report said They note that trade will likely have to wait for the winter wheat seeding report due to the government shutdown.