In this file:
· Economist Forecasts Increased Pork Production In 2019
… “We can’t look to exports and say save us here when we continue to produce, produce, produce more pork,” says Stuart. “We just don’t export enough to keep up”…
· African Swine Fever Hot Topic at Midwest Pork Conference
… “There is no doubt the Chinese government is very concerned about this situation. This is a disease with no vaccine, it’s now spread 2400 miles far and wide across China, it’s largely uncontrolled, and it will kill millions of hogs”…
Economist Forecasts Increased Pork Production In 2019
By Samantha Horton, Indiana Public Media/WFIU/WTIU
December 5, 2018
Indiana, like the broader U.S. pork industry, has taken some hits this year with thanks to tariffs from China and Mexico on “the other white meat.” This and other factors helped one economist make a 2019 forecast for national hog production.
Speaking Tuesday at a conference on the industry, Global AgriTrends President and CEO Brett Stuart tallied a list of all the taxes the U.S. currently pays to ship pork to China.
“China put a 25 percent duty on U.S. pork, then they put another 25 percent duty,” says Stuart. “So if we want to do the math, that’s 50 percent, plus we pay a 12 percent duty to ship pork to China, a regular duty, plus we pay a 16 percent VAT, value added tax. So you add that up, we’re paying 78 percent duties.”
American hog producers have also taken a hit thanks to Mexico enforcing a 20 percent tariff on all U.S. hogs imported into that country.
Looking at next year, Stuart forecasts pork production will be up next year, along with consumer demand.
“Americans are going to eat a record amount of beef, pork and poultry in 2019. More than they’ve ever eaten,” says Stuart.
Yet, he says there will still be a surplus and to keep per capita value steady, about 20 percent will need to be exported to other countries, which he doesn’t think can be done.
“We can’t look to exports and say save us here when we continue to produce, produce, produce more pork,” says Stuart. “We just don’t export enough to keep up.”
He calucalates U.S. pork exports will increase, but not necessarily to China due to the ongoing trade disputes.
“I’ve got 2018 up 4 percent, I’ve got 2019 up 5 percent,” says Stuart. “But...
African Swine Fever Hot Topic at Midwest Pork Conference
By Eric Pfeiffer, Hoosier Ag Today
Dec 4, 2018
At the Midwest Pork Conference in Hendricks County on Tuesday, African Swine Fever (ASF) was a major topic of conversation. Brett Stuart is the president of a company called Global AgriTrends that conducts and delivers global agriculture research.
“There is no doubt the Chinese government is very concerned about this situation. This is a disease with no vaccine, it’s now spread 2400 miles far and wide across China, it’s largely uncontrolled, and it will kill millions of hogs.”
Indiana State Veterinarian Dr. Bret Marsh spoke three months ago to the day about ASF with Hoosier Ag Today. Since then, things have only gotten worse in China.
“We had hoped, of course, with the steps taken by the Chinese government that they could contain the virus. That’s clearly not been the case as we continue to get new cases reported in new provinces. None the less, it keeps us on high alert here in the United States and certainly here in Indiana with our pork industry making sure we’re as prepared as possible.”
Marsh says it’s imperative that producers are looking for things that are out of the ordinary or unusual. He says ASF won’t produce blisters on the snout or at the top of the hoof like some other diseases...
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