… Reports that the trade meetings between the U.S. and China were “very successful” and confidence that there will be results are good ideas for the hogs today, “given that part of yesterday’s sell-off was based on skepticism as to whether China would lower tariffs on U.S. pork,” The Hightower Report said. Looking at today’s market, “the hog market seems set to eventually rally,” The Hightower Report added. With the comments from Chinese officials and a jump in pork values yesterday, the market will find support, they said… Allendale said that African Swine Fever outbreaks are “generally under control in China as prevention and control measures have been effective,” citing a senior agricultural official… [Tues]: National carcass base down 85 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 42 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up 23 cents. “The hog market looks like it's going to be a very good rally for 2019 but it's kind of a waiting game right now,” said Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report. China likely will need to be a major importer for 2019 and bought pork with a 62 percent tariff, so traders are hoping and waiting to see if China reduces its tariffs…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today 

Wed 12/5/2018 8:42 AM

 

Lean hogs - Reports that the trade meetings between the U.S. and China were “very successful” and confidence that there will be results are good ideas for the hogs today, “given that part of yesterday’s sell-off was based on skepticism as to whether China would lower tariffs on U.S. pork,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Looking at today’s market, “the hog market seems set to eventually rally,” The Hightower Report added. With the comments from Chinese officials and a jump in pork values yesterday, the market will find support, they said.

 

China comments a positive force

 

China’s overnight comments are a “longer-term positive force,” for cattle entering trading today, The Hightower Report said. “China is the world’s second largest beef importer (behind the U.S.) but the U.S. has less than a 1 percent share of the market,” they added.

 

Allendale said that African Swine Fever outbreaks are “generally under control in China as prevention and control measures have been effective,” citing a senior agricultural official. There have been 81 cases reported in China as of Monday.

 

Tue 12/4/2018 4:55 PM: 

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:

 

•           National carcass base down 85 cents to $48.68/cwt.

•           National live down 20 cents to $39.05

•           Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 42 cents to $48.45

•           Iowa-Minnesota live $37.65, no comparison

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up 23 cents at $70.88/cwt.

 

“The hog market looks like it's going to be a very good rally for 2019 but it's kind of a waiting game right now,” said Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report. China likely will need to be a major importer for 2019 and bought pork with a 62 percent tariff, so traders are hoping and waiting to see if China reduces its tariffs.

 

With more than 80 cases of African swine fever reported in China, “Chinese officials have emphasized the importance of maintaining and regulating the outbreak, culling over 600,000 pigs,” said Michael Headlee of CHS Hedging. “This value is far less than 1 percent of the actual Chinese hog production.” 

 

Mostly off for hogs, up for cattle

 

Lean hog futures finished mostly lower, including declines in the front four months.

 

Most cattle futures gained: Live cattle contracts advanced except for the most distant month, while feeder futures rose except for January.

 

Wed 12/5/2018 8:42 AM: 

 

Supply and demand estimates released

 

The average supply and demand estimates were released by Reuters with ending stocks for U.S. wheat at 956 million bushels, 1.783 billion bushels for corn and 940 million bushels of soybeans. The official numbers will be released next Tuesday.

 

Stock markets and government agencies will be closed today due to a National Day of Mourning for former President George H.W. Bush. This will delay reports such as export sales and ethanol production by one day this week. CME Futures trade will continue on its normal schedule.

 

Corn

 

As “China’s response to the trade truce is becoming clearer,” corn saw a drop overnight, Steve Wagner said. Corn in china was also down 2 ½ cents, he said. With a “lack of follow through buying,” he expects trade to finish 1 to 3 cents lower today.

 

Blue Line Futures said that, in their view, corn “has been the most impressive in the grains.” While there hasn’t been much new news, they added that their focus “will continue to be on money flow and technicals.”

 

Soybeans

 

Soybeans, along with liquefied natural gas, are going to be among the first commodities bought by China, Steve Wagner of CHS Hedging said. “They said they will ‘expand imports according to the needs of its domestic market and people’,” Wagner said. “Whether they drop their tariffs or just buy the commodities through a state owned grain company … is not clear.”

 

Blue Line Futures said that while people are saying ‘nothing has changed’ with the G-20 Summit, “we would say yes, but no. … Though the talks didn’t cement anything, it was just bullish enough to not be bearish and an undeniable step forward.”

 

Wheat

 

John Payne of Daniels Trading said “the market is stuck between a lack of news and firm world cash markets.” He notes that Russian offers “rallied hard” from this point through the spring in 2016 and 2017, and this year offers have already been above the highs from last year. “A rally in wheat is coming, timing is seemingly impossible.”

 

The ability to hold gains “eroded” overnight, Steve Wagner of CHS Hedging said. Chicago wheat fell four cents, while Kansas City wheat was down 6 ½ and Minneapolis wheat dropped 4 ¼. Wagner expects today’s outlook to be 3 to 5 cents lower for the wheat market.

 

marketwatchonline.com