… There was a 53 percent jump in procurement for extended delivery beef last week, Allendale said. “Packers were quite active in procurement for beef past March 1 needs,” they said. “This could indicate packers are concerned about early summer and summer supplies after two months in a row of lower than last year placements”… China’s overnight comments are a “longer-term positive force,” for cattle entering trading today, The Hightower Report said. “China is the world’s second largest beef importer (behind the U.S.) but the U.S. has less than a 1 percent share of the market,” they added… [Tues]: Choice rose 78 cents… Select dropped $1.67… USDA posted no reportable cash trade in Nebraska. USDA said 390 head sold dressed in Iowa-Minnesota at $183/cwt.; no live sales posted…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Wed 12/5/2018 8:42 AM
Cattle - The February cattle contract “not only erased all of (Monday’s) losses,” Blue Line Futures said, “but also managed to post their highest price in a month.” They added it was impressive with the S&P taking a 3 percent hit yesterday. “When stocks see this kind of pressure, it is not out of the ordinary to see a lit on cattle as concerns over forward demand seep into the market.”
There was a 53 percent jump in procurement for extended delivery beef last week, Allendale said. “Packers were quite active in procurement for beef past March 1 needs,” they said. “This could indicate packers are concerned about early summer and summer supplies after two months in a row of lower than last year placements.”
China comments a positive force
China’s overnight comments are a “longer-term positive force,” for cattle entering trading today, The Hightower Report said. “China is the world’s second largest beef importer (behind the U.S.) but the U.S. has less than a 1 percent share of the market,” they added.
Allendale said that African Swine Fever outbreaks are “generally under control in China as prevention and control measures have been effective,” citing a senior agricultural official. There have been 81 cases reported in China as of Monday.
Tue 12/4/2018 4:55 PM:
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were higher on Choice and lower on Select on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings, USDA said.
• Choice rose 78 cents to $213.86/cwt.
• Select dropped $1.67 to $197.51.
USDA posted no reportable cash trade in Nebraska. USDA said 390 head sold dressed in Iowa-Minnesota at $183/cwt.; no live sales posted.
The dry forecast for northern Kansas and Nebraska have limited gains, while rain in Texas and Oklahoma in the next five days should offer support, Stewart-Peterson said. “Larger show lists for this week are also slightly negative, but beef values have been moving steadily higher and the trade developments with China should be supportive longer term.”
February live cattle futures finished with their highest close since Nov. 2 “as positive demand tone and some concerns for winter weather in the Plains helped to support active buying,” The Hightower Report said. Cash markets rose $1 to $1.50 last week and traders expect a firm tone again this week.
Mostly off for hogs, up for cattle
Lean hog futures finished mostly lower, including declines in the front four months.
Most cattle futures gained: Live cattle contracts advanced except for the most distant month, while feeder futures rose except for January.
Wed 12/5/2018 8:42 AM:
Supply and demand estimates released
The average supply and demand estimates were released by Reuters with ending stocks for U.S. wheat at 956 million bushels, 1.783 billion bushels for corn and 940 million bushels of soybeans. The official numbers will be released next Tuesday.
Stock markets and government agencies will be closed today due to a National Day of Mourning for former President George H.W. Bush. This will delay reports such as export sales and ethanol production by one day this week. CME Futures trade will continue on its normal schedule.
As “China’s response to the trade truce is becoming clearer,” corn saw a drop overnight, Steve Wagner said. Corn in china was also down 2 ½ cents, he said. With a “lack of follow through buying,” he expects trade to finish 1 to 3 cents lower today.
Blue Line Futures said that, in their view, corn “has been the most impressive in the grains.” While there hasn’t been much new news, they added that their focus “will continue to be on money flow and technicals.”
Soybeans, along with liquefied natural gas, are going to be among the first commodities bought by China, Steve Wagner of CHS Hedging said. “They said they will ‘expand imports according to the needs of its domestic market and people’,” Wagner said. “Whether they drop their tariffs or just buy the commodities through a state owned grain company … is not clear.”
Blue Line Futures said that while people are saying ‘nothing has changed’ with the G-20 Summit, “we would say yes, but no. … Though the talks didn’t cement anything, it was just bullish enough to not be bearish and an undeniable step forward.”
John Payne of Daniels Trading said “the market is stuck between a lack of news and firm world cash markets.” He notes that Russian offers “rallied hard” from this point through the spring in 2016 and 2017, and this year offers have already been above the highs from last year. “A rally in wheat is coming, timing is seemingly impossible.”
The ability to hold gains “eroded” overnight, Steve Wagner of CHS Hedging said. Chicago wheat fell four cents, while Kansas City wheat was down 6 ½ and Minneapolis wheat dropped 4 ¼. Wagner expects today’s outlook to be 3 to 5 cents lower for the wheat market.