In this file:


·         China’s need for US pork could be on the rise

·         U.S. expects immediate action from China on trade commitments

·         Reality Check: China Won’t Immediately Start Buying U.S. Ag Goods

·         US farmers set to benefit from China tariff cuts

·         Analyst: Negativity Surrounding Ceasefire’s Impact on Ag is Nonsense



China’s need for US pork could be on the rise


By Meghan Grebner, Brownfield

December 3, 2018


China recently placed its largest order of US pork since the start of the trade war.  A livestock economist says he wasn’t surprised.


In this Managing for Profit, Steve Meyer with Kerns and Associates talks about the buy and how the ongoing battle with African Swine Fever will impact their consumption of US pork into 2019.


AUDIO: Steve Meyer, Managing for Profit


document, plus audio [3:03 min.]



U.S. expects immediate action from China on trade commitments


By David Lawder and Jeff Mason, Reuters

via - December 2, 2018


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States expects immediate action by China on trade issues after a deal reached by the countries' leaders, including lower tariffs on automobiles and measures against intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, a White House official said on Monday.


U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to hold off on new tariffs for 90 days during talks in Argentina on Saturday, declaring a truce following months of escalating tensions on trade and other issues.


That 90-day period will begin on Jan. 1, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters.


The Chinese offered more than $1.2 trillion in additional commitments on trade, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Monday. Kudlow said that figure was a broad benchmark and referred to private transactions for buying U.S. goods, subject to market conditions.


China also committed immediately to start lifting tariffs and non-tariff barriers, including reducing its 40 percent tariffs on autos, Kudlow said.


"We expect those tariffs to fall to zero," he told reporters.


Americans will get majority ownership in companies in China for the first time, which should help address top U.S. concerns about including intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.


None of the commitments were agreed to in writing and specifics had yet to be hammered out.


Mnuchin said there was a shift in tone at Buenos Aires from past discussions as Xi offered a clear commitment to open China's markets to U.S. companies.


"This is the first time that we have a commitment from them that this will be a real agreement,"


Mnuchin told CNBC.


Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, said he, Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held two private meetings with China's Vice Premier Liu He in Argentina and he told them that Beijing would move immediately on the new commitments.


"The history here with China promises is not very good. And we know that," Kudlow said. "However, I will say this: President Xi has never been this involved."


Kudlow said: "They cannot slow walk this, stall this, meander this. Their word: ‘immediately.’"


The truce boosted global markets on Monday with world stocks rising to their highest in about three weeks. On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 gained nearly 1 percent, although the index had come off its earlier session highs in afternoon trading.


Kudlow said U.S. officials will monitor Chinese progress on enforcing the commitments very closely.


Trump has appointed Lighthizer, one of the administration's most vocal China critics, to oversee the new round of trade talks with China, officials said.


The appointment of Lighthizer, who just completed a new agreement with Canada and Mexico , may signify a harder line in talks with Beijing and marks a shift from past practices where Mnuchin had a lead role.


"He's the toughest negotiator we've ever had at the USTR and he's going to go chapter and verse and get tariffs down, non-tariff barriers down and end all these structural practices that prevent market access," White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told National Public Radio earlier on Monday.


Kudlow said he and Mnunchin would...





Reality Check: China Won’t Immediately Start Buying U.S. Ag Goods


By Tyne Morgan, US Farm Report, Host

via AgWeb - Dec 3, 2018


The cease-fire between the U.S. and China sent soybeans higher, with prices ending the day up double digits. Purdue University agricultural economist Wally Tyner said the meeting Saturday night was a step in the right direction.


“I think it's a meaningful process in the sense that it limits the escalation,” said Tyner.


That escalation would have manifested in a tariff on all $267 billion worth of Chinese imports of 25 percent, up from the current 10 percent. The threat is now on hold after President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day window to negotiate a permanent cease-fire to the trade war.


“In that sense it's good, but it doesn't do anything about the tariffs that are already in place, and that's the concern,” said Tyner.


The White House touted over the weekend and again on Monday that China will immediately start buying U.S. agricultural goods. However, agricultural economists like Tyner warn with tariffs still in place, that may not be a reality anytime soon.


“I don't think there's going to be a rush to buy U.S. products,” said Tyner. “On the other hand, it's pretty clear now that Brazil and Argentina cannot supply all of the Chinese needs. Saying that they're [China] going to start buying U.S. products may just be a recognition of the reality that they have to buy some product, but it's not going to be a large amount.”


Tyner said the U.S. is still going to see a reduction in total demand; the extent of that demand loss is still unknown. He said some other countries are coming to the market to buy U.S. soybeans, eating up some of the lost demand, but he said it’s not to the extent it would have been without the trade war with China.


With soybean exports struggling, time is running out in the typical export window to ship beans to China before the Brazilian crop comes online. Tyner said even if exports resume today, he’s doubtful the U.S. can export to the level it saw before tariffs were put into place.


“I don't think, in soybeans, we can make up the lost ground,” said Tyner. “Our estimate was that the total loss and demand for the U.S. would be about 29 percent. I think that's still a good number - it could go up or down – but what we need is a long-term settlement.”


Tyner said he is watching what happens in the next 90 days closely...


more, including video report [1:31 min.]



US farmers set to benefit from China tariff cuts


By Ashley Williams, GlobalMeatNews



US President Donald Trump has claimed that farmers are set to benefit from its latest trade talks with China during the G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.


The announcement came from Trump’s twitter account after revealing that China had allegedly agreed to “reduce and remove​” tariffs on US cars, which is currently set at 40%.


“Farmers will be a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China. They intend to start purchasing agricultural products immediately. We make the finest and cleanest product in the world, and that is what China wants​,” said Trump’s tweet.


“President Xi and I have a very strong and personal relationship. He and I are the only two people that can bring about massive and very positive change, on trade and far beyond, between our two great nations​.”


The tweet was later confirmed in an official White House statement:





Analyst: Negativity Surrounding Ceasefire’s Impact on Ag is Nonsense


By Tyne Morgan, US Farm Report, Host

via AgWeb - December 4, 2018


Unknowns regarding the 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China still persist. It’s some of those unknowns causing bearish outlooks to surface, with some economists and analysts saying China won’t buy U.S. ag goods right away. However, Allendale’s Bill Biedermann says that negativity is nonsense.


Tuesday morning on Fox Business Treasury Secretary Steve Mnunchin said agriculture will be the first line item in trade talks. He said, “Our expectation is that there will be specific deliverables” and timelines from China.


Biederamann said farmers will be the first beneficiary of any deal with China, followed by natural gas. Mnuchin said Monday the deal with China could be worth $1.2 trillion. Biedermann said with a deal that big, it will take time to iron out details, but the rewards from any deal for agriculture could be great.


“That’s a lot of money and a lot of trade,” said Biedermann.


Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Monday in Chicago that he thinks China will come back to the market and start buying January 1, 2019, while the current tariffs on agriculture goods still remain in place. However, Biedermann doesn’t think the tariffs will harm ag exports in the interim.


“I don’t think that’s going to be an issue for the market,” said Biedermann. “I think they are going to buy anyway. It is going to take some time. This is a really big deal, and if I was China, as far as I’m concerned, I would be telling all my buyers ‘go out and get it bought, get it bought now, and then after you have it bought, I’ll announce we’re going to reduce the tariffs on U.S. beans.’ Everybody will make money if they do it that way.”


Perdue also said Monday China would buy a number of U.S. ag goods, including rice, poultry, sorghum, wheat, pork and soybeans


Despite the good news, Biedermann said traders continue to be bearish. That bearishness isn’t necessary, as he thinks China is already coming back to the market to buy.


“I don’t agree with all these people who are bearish, saying it’s not going to happen,” said Biedermann. “in fact, there are have been three U.S. ‘unknown’ purchases of soybeans in the last five days. I think it’s about ten cargoes. It’s a lot of beans. I think that could be China. I don’t know—I’m just guessing, but I do know they’ve bought some pork lately, too.”


Biedermann said when you look at recent exports, the shuffling game has already happened for soybeans, with countries stepping up to buy U.S. soybeans.


“We’ve had about 300 million bushels of buys outside of China—non normal buyers- buy from us,” said Biedermann. “That’s a pretty good amount of demand.”


He said if you look at the exports already on the table, and then you throw China into the market and they start buying, it only builds into that momentum.


‘”I don’t’ think there’s a lot of downside in this market,” said Biedermann...


more, including video report [3:35 min.]