… weights of barrows and gilts rose 1 lb. in the latest week, raising the average carcass weight to 213 lbs., Allendale said… China’s purchases of U.S. pork help to confirm “a need to begin to build up China pork supply due to production losses from disease,” The Hightower Report said… “China is loading up on U.S. pork, despite import tariffs imposed due to the trade war, as a highly contagious swine disease ravages the Chinese hog herd,” said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services. China’s purchases last week “are a signal that an outbreak of African swine fever is raising concerns of an eventual supply shortfall, potentially superseding trade tensions”… [Thurs]: National carcass base down 36 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 2 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up 70 cents… “If China were to lose 16 percent of their herd because of African Swine Fever, all of the world exporters would need to double their exports for 2019,” Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report said. That idea was one that helped support prices today… 

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

Fri 11/30/2018 8:56 AM

 

Lean hogs - Average weights of barrows and gilts rose 1 lb. in the latest week, raising the average carcass weight to 213 lbs., Allendale said. “It is normal for weights to rise into late November. They were even with the previous week and again even in this specific week.”

 

China’s purchases of U.S. pork help to confirm “a need to begin to build up China pork supply due to production losses from disease,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there said February hogs have support at $66.67 and 66.02, with next resistance at $69.00 and $71.65.

 

China ASF may supersede trade tension

 

“China is loading up on U.S. pork, despite import tariffs imposed due to the trade war, as a highly contagious swine disease ravages the Chinese hog herd,” said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services. China’s purchases last week “are a signal that an outbreak of African swine fever is raising concerns of an eventual supply shortfall, potentially superseding trade tensions.”

 

In the cattle market, “Some concerns for poor weight gain weather in the Plains into the weekend and a colder than normal outlook for later next week may have been a factor to help support the strong bounce off of the lows yesterday,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Thu 11/29/2018 4:53 PM:

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported;

 

•           National carcass base down 36 cents to $49.49/cwt.

•           National live up 15 cents to $39.38

•           Iowa-Minnesota carcass base down 2 cents to $49.74

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon up 70 cents at $68.44/cwt.

 

After a good day in hogs, Oliver Sloup of Blue Line futures said the key point of resistance is 69 or 70. “If we can get out above there, man, this market can really move.”

 

“If China were to lose 16 percent of their herd because of African Swine Fever, all of the world exporters would need to double their exports for 2019,” Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report said. That idea was one that helped support prices today.

 

Hogs see positive jump

 

Lean hogs were “the star of the show today,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. They jumped on trade news from the U.S. and China “which accelerated this market higher.”

 

Export news weighed on cattle today amid concerns that “the short-term total meat supply is burdensome” helping to spark early selling and lower trade into the mid-session, The Hightower Report said.

 

Fri 11/30/2018 8:56 AM: 

 

Focus stays on trade prospects

 

“Grain markets have all hands on deck searching for the latest clues regarding tomorrow's high-stakes meeting between the U.S. and Chinese Presidents Trump and Xi,” and end-of-month positioning will play a role in markets today, Allendale said.

 

“It is a deal or no deal weekend set-up for the market with traders expecting increased volatility for the Sunday night session,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Corn

 

USDA reported very strong weekly export sales yesterday, indicating the U.S. regained export competitiveness, said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. Choppy trade is likely today unless a new tweet comment or headline hits, he said.

 

Corn futures were “very steady and quiet yesterday, closing unchanged,” said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. “Not much more to say until after this weekend.”

 

Soybeans

 

“With or without a deal, the soybean supply fundamentals are as bad as we have ever seen, so follow-through on the upside is likely very limited once the 60,000-contract net short position of managed money fund traders is covered,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there said a January close above $9.00 ¾ “should open up a run to the swing high objective at $9.22.”

 

“We are seeing a massive uptick in out-of-the-money call volatility over the past few days as protection against a positive trade outcome is being bought by the speculative crowd in tremendous fashion,” said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. He advised farmers to look at min-max averaging to protect downside risk.

 

Wheat

 

Chicago and Minneapolis wheat markets yesterday were “a bit behind” Kansas City, said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. “The cash markets find KC HRW trying to keep up with HRS values particularly in the domestic channels.” He said calls this morning were 2-3 cents higher.

 

USDA reported export sales of 377,079 MT in the latest week, more than twice the volume a year earlier, Brugler Marketing said. “Sales by class data shows that HRW bookings were the largest of any class for the first time in eight weeks. Low prices cure low prices!”

 

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