… average steer weights fell 4 lbs. to 900 lbs. per carcass, Allendale noted… “Cash bids have been scarce, with a few $180-183 reported in the north,” Brugler Marketing said. Analysts there noted beef export shipments in the week ended Nov. 22 were “only 14,640 MT, the third lowest this year”… [Thurs]: Choice fell 67 cents… Select rose 3 cents… In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, USDA reported 236 head sold live at $113-115; 2,884 head sold dressed at $182-185. In Iowa-Minnesota, 335 head sold live at $113-114 and 2,898 head sold dressed at $180-183… Export news weighed on cattle today amid concerns that “the short-term total meat supply is burdensome” helping to spark early selling and lower trade into the mid-session, The Hightower Report said…
Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today
Fri 11/30/2018 8:56 AM
Cattle - Weekly average steer weights fell 4 lbs. to 900 lbs. per carcass, Allendale noted. “They fell from 0.2 percent over last year to now 0.2 percent under.” Heifer weights fell 2 lbs. to 836 lbs., now even with last year.
“Cash bids have been scarce, with a few $180-183 reported in the north,” Brugler Marketing said. Analysts there noted beef export shipments in the week ended Nov. 22 were “only 14,640 MT, the third lowest this year.”
China ASF may supersede trade tension
“China is loading up on U.S. pork, despite import tariffs imposed due to the trade war, as a highly contagious swine disease ravages the Chinese hog herd,” said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services. China’s purchases last week “are a signal that an outbreak of African swine fever is raising concerns of an eventual supply shortfall, potentially superseding trade tensions.”
In the cattle market, “Some concerns for poor weight gain weather in the Plains into the weekend and a colder than normal outlook for later next week may have been a factor to help support the strong bounce off of the lows yesterday,” The Hightower Report said.
Thu 11/29/2018 4:53 PM:
Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were weak on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings, USDA said.
• Choice fell 67 cents to $212.61/cwt.
• Select rose 3 cents to $198.53.
In negotiated cash sales in Nebraska, USDA reported 236 head sold live at $113-115; 2,884 head sold dressed at $182-185. In Iowa-Minnesota, 335 head sold live at $113-114 and 2,898 head sold dressed at $180-183.
Poor export sales weighted on live and feeder cattle today. Sales numbers were reported at 9,100 tons, which was down 3,200 tons from last week. “This is the lowest level of exports for beef in the past 10 weeks with over 60 percent sold to Japan and South Korea,” CHS Hedging’s Michael Headlee said.
February cattle hit its lowest level in two weeks on today’s selloff, The Hightower Report said. “The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.”
Hogs see positive jump
Lean hogs were “the star of the show today,” Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures said. They jumped on trade news from the U.S. and China “which accelerated this market higher.”
Export news weighed on cattle today amid concerns that “the short-term total meat supply is burdensome” helping to spark early selling and lower trade into the mid-session, The Hightower Report said.
Fri 11/30/2018 8:56 AM:
Focus stays on trade prospects
“Grain markets have all hands on deck searching for the latest clues regarding tomorrow's high-stakes meeting between the U.S. and Chinese Presidents Trump and Xi,” and end-of-month positioning will play a role in markets today, Allendale said.
“It is a deal or no deal weekend set-up for the market with traders expecting increased volatility for the Sunday night session,” The Hightower Report said.
USDA reported very strong weekly export sales yesterday, indicating the U.S. regained export competitiveness, said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. Choppy trade is likely today unless a new tweet comment or headline hits, he said.
Corn futures were “very steady and quiet yesterday, closing unchanged,” said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. “Not much more to say until after this weekend.”
“With or without a deal, the soybean supply fundamentals are as bad as we have ever seen, so follow-through on the upside is likely very limited once the 60,000-contract net short position of managed money fund traders is covered,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there said a January close above $9.00 ¾ “should open up a run to the swing high objective at $9.22.”
“We are seeing a massive uptick in out-of-the-money call volatility over the past few days as protection against a positive trade outcome is being bought by the speculative crowd in tremendous fashion,” said Jacob Christy of The Andersons. He advised farmers to look at min-max averaging to protect downside risk.
Chicago and Minneapolis wheat markets yesterday were “a bit behind” Kansas City, said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. “The cash markets find KC HRW trying to keep up with HRS values particularly in the domestic channels.” He said calls this morning were 2-3 cents higher.
USDA reported export sales of 377,079 MT in the latest week, more than twice the volume a year earlier, Brugler Marketing said. “Sales by class data shows that HRW bookings were the largest of any class for the first time in eight weeks. Low prices cure low prices!”