… Futures have support from hopes for progress toward a U.S.-China trade agreement when the presidents meet Saturday, and from ideas that China will need a surge in pork imports, The Hightower Report said… USDA reported “very large” weekly pork export sales, with Mexico the largest buyer, noted Dennis Smith of Archer Financial Services. “And guess what, China was in for 3,300 MT of U.S. pork last weekChina bought 9,400 MT of pork last week for 2019… [Weds]: National carcass base up 26 cents… Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 49 cents… USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon down 53 cents… Hog supplies are at record levels and demand has slowed a little, said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities. The uptick in carcass weights also might be adding pressure. However, she expected sideways movement until the market gets more information, and said traders will closely watch Saturday’s news about U.S.-China talks…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

Thu 11/29/2018 9:11 AM

 

Lean hogs - Pork prices in some parts of China have dropped more than 20 percent since August, when African swine fever hit hogs in the country, said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services. “China may soon buy pork for its state reserves to support farmers struggling to sell their pigs.”

 

Futures have support from hopes for progress toward a U.S.-China trade agreement when the presidents meet Saturday, and from ideas that China will need a surge in pork imports, The Hightower Report said. “However, the weak trend in U.S. cash markets plus the premium of futures to the cash are seen as negative forces.”

 

Exports: In the week ended Nov. 22, net pork sales of 20,900 MT for 2018 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

China buys U.S. pork

 

USDA reported “very large” weekly pork export sales, with Mexico the largest buyer, noted Dennis Smith of Archer Financial Services. “And guess what, China was in for 3,300 MT of U.S. pork last week. This alone should put a positive spin on futures today.” USDA’s report also showed China bought 9,400 MT of pork last week for 2019.

 

The cattle market “could struggle to absorb the hefty total meat supply short-term, but supply is about to peak; China may be a more active buyer of pork and beef next year (especially if there is progress for a deal on Saturday); and the demand tone remains strong,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there added that consumer confidence reading are positive and consumer demand for December “looks very strong.”

 

Wed 11/28/2018 4:41 PM:

 

In weighted average negotiated prices for barrows and gilts, USDA reported:

 

•           National carcass base up 26 cents to $49.59/cwt.

•           National live up 8 cents to $39.47

•           Iowa-Minnesota carcass base up 49 cents to $49.34

 

USDA reported carcass cutout values this afternoon down 53 cents at $67.74/cwt.

 

Hog supplies are at record levels and demand has slowed a little, said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities. The uptick in carcass weights also might be adding pressure. However, she expected sideways movement until the market gets more information, and said traders will closely watch Saturday’s news about U.S.-China talks.

 

The wider-than-normal premium of futures to cash and lack of evidence that China intends to import U.S. pork are limiting upward momentum for hog futures, said Stewart-Peterson. “Traders lie in wait for news on this week's G20 Summit hoping that trade progress could open the door for China to import American pork.” 

 

Hog futures under pressure

 

Hog futures were under pressure today from weakness in cash markets, a break in belly prices and talk of record weekly production in the next few weeks, The Hightower Report said.

 

U.S.-China talks expected for Saturday “could be a game changer for meats,” and the cattle market “could have big volatility Monday,” said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities.

 

Thu 11/29/2018 9:11 AM: 

 

Grains sag after yesterday’s Fed boost

 

“U.S. ag markets have sold off in the overnight as markets wake up with a hangover from yesterday’s Fed-induced buzz thanks to a neutral to dovish interest rate speech by FOMC Chair Powell,” said John Payne, broker at Daniels Trading.

 

Yesterday, “Grain markets pushed sharply higher as traders become more optimistic progress will be made at the G20 summit this weekend at the Trump-Xi meeting to end the current trade dispute,” Allendale said.

 

“One farmer advisory group suggested U.S. farmer increase 2018, 2019, 2020 cash corn sales and 2018,2019 and 2020 cash soybean sales,” said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services.

 

Corn

 

Corn, soybean and wheat markets “appear to be stuck in a sideways range and have not given me any reason to initiate a trade,” said Marc Nemenoff of The Price Futures Group. “Maybe the upcoming G20 meeting will have a negative dollar effect which could provide a rally to sell beans above $9.20 and corn above $3.84.”

 

“Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister, Maksym Martyniuk, said the imposition of martial law is not affecting Ukrainian grain shipments from ports on the Azov Sea so far and if necessary they can be diverted to the Black Sea,” Allendale said. Analysts there noted Ukraine has exported 5.2 MMT of corn this year, vs 2.9 MMT last season.

 

Weekly export sales for corn in USDA’s report this morning “were fantastic for corn at we saw a jump to 1.27 MMT, much higher than a week ago,” said John Payne, broker at Daniels Trading.

 

Exports: In the week ended Nov. 22, net sales of 1,266,500 MT for 2018-19 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean futures “continued to make the best of a kind of friendly technical chart look yesterday,” said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. He said January and March futures likely will provide a “moderate buy signal for some technical traders,” and talk of renewed biodiesel blenders credits helped soybean oil. However, opening calls were 3-5 cents lower.

 

With a potential trade deal with China and a biodiesel tax credit, “trend-following traders have been actively covering their positions,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there said January soybean closed “at a precarious level of $8.90 ½ … A close above this level potentially projects to $9.82,” with “plenty of hedge selling” on the way up.

 

Exports: Net sales of 628,800 MT for 2018-19 in the week ended Nov. 22 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 50 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

Wheat

 

Chicago March wheat “continues to coil, hinting to break out to the downside but not finding enough selling interest,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Many winter wheat farmers are putting their drills away this week or did that last week, said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. Also, hard red winter wheat “needs a break in rail rates to export markets to be competitive.”

 

Exports: In the week ended Nov. 22, net sales of 377,100 MT for 2018-19 were up 14 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

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