… “Expectations continue to be for higher cash… China was in for 3,300 MT of U.S. pork last week… The cattle market “could struggle to absorb the hefty total meat supply short-term, but supply is about to peak; China may be a more active buyer of pork and beef next year (especially if there is progress for a deal on Saturday); and the demand tone remains strong”… [Weds]: Choice lost 72 cents… Select fell $1.74… USDA posted no reportable negotiated cash sales in Nebraska. In Iowa-Minnesota, USDA said 1,649 head sold live at $114-116 and 810 head sold dressed at $180-185. The Fed Cattle Exchange reported 620 head offered and 148 sold for 1-9-day delivery at $116.75. More cash trade is expected later in the week…

 

Farm Commodity Newsletter/Iowa Farmer Today

Thu 11/29/2018 9:11 AM

 

Cattle - “The market seems to be shaking weak hands out before it makes its next directional move,” Blue Line Futures said. Analysts there noted light cash trade so far this week. “Expectations continue to be for higher cash, but those expectations are likely baked into the cake to some extent.”

 

Live and feeder cattle futures traded mostly sideways in the past few sessions, noted Marc Nemenoff of The Price Futures Group. He said he’s on the sidelines, but would be a seller in February live cattle if the market rallies above $122.

 

Exports: Net sales of 9,100 MT of beef for 2018 in the week ended Nov. 22 were down 26 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

China buys U.S. pork

 

USDA reported “very large” weekly pork export sales, with Mexico the largest buyer, noted Dennis Smith of Archer Financial Services. “And guess what, China was in for 3,300 MT of U.S. pork last week. This alone should put a positive spin on futures today.” USDA’s report also showed China bought 9,400 MT of pork last week for 2019.

 

The cattle market “could struggle to absorb the hefty total meat supply short-term, but supply is about to peak; China may be a more active buyer of pork and beef next year (especially if there is progress for a deal on Saturday); and the demand tone remains strong,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there added that consumer confidence reading are positive and consumer demand for December “looks very strong.”

 

Wed 11/28/2018 4:41 PM

 

Boxed beef cutout values this afternoon were weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings, USDA said.

 

•           Choice lost 72 cents to $213.28/cwt.

•           Select fell $1.74 to $198.50.

 

USDA posted no reportable negotiated cash sales in Nebraska. In Iowa-Minnesota, USDA said 1,649 head sold live at $114-116 and 810 head sold dressed at $180-185.

 

The Fed Cattle Exchange reported 620 head offered and 148 sold for 1-9-day delivery at $116.75.

 

More cash trade is expected later in the week, and Thursday-Friday trade in recent months has indicated market direction, said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities. Live futures have stayed in their channel of recent weeks but feeders declined.

 

Live cattle futures rallied early but then traded lower, The Hightower Report noted. “Ideas that the hefty supply of pork and poultry on the market at present will limit any advance in beef prices helped to limit the rally.” 

 

Thu 11/29/2018 9:11 AM: 

 

Grains sag after yesterday’s Fed boost

 

“U.S. ag markets have sold off in the overnight as markets wake up with a hangover from yesterday’s Fed-induced buzz thanks to a neutral to dovish interest rate speech by FOMC Chair Powell,” said John Payne, broker at Daniels Trading.

 

Yesterday, “Grain markets pushed sharply higher as traders become more optimistic progress will be made at the G20 summit this weekend at the Trump-Xi meeting to end the current trade dispute,” Allendale said.

 

“One farmer advisory group suggested U.S. farmer increase 2018, 2019, 2020 cash corn sales and 2018,2019 and 2020 cash soybean sales,” said Steve Freed, grain research VP at ADM Investor Services.

 

Corn

 

Corn, soybean and wheat markets “appear to be stuck in a sideways range and have not given me any reason to initiate a trade,” said Marc Nemenoff of The Price Futures Group. “Maybe the upcoming G20 meeting will have a negative dollar effect which could provide a rally to sell beans above $9.20 and corn above $3.84.”

 

“Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister, Maksym Martyniuk, said the imposition of martial law is not affecting Ukrainian grain shipments from ports on the Azov Sea so far and if necessary they can be diverted to the Black Sea,” Allendale said. Analysts there noted Ukraine has exported 5.2 MMT of corn this year, vs 2.9 MMT last season.

 

Weekly export sales for corn in USDA’s report this morning “were fantastic for corn at we saw a jump to 1.27 MMT, much higher than a week ago,” said John Payne, broker at Daniels Trading.

 

Exports: In the week ended Nov. 22, net sales of 1,266,500 MT for 2018-19 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

Soybeans

 

Soybean futures “continued to make the best of a kind of friendly technical chart look yesterday,” said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. He said January and March futures likely will provide a “moderate buy signal for some technical traders,” and talk of renewed biodiesel blenders credits helped soybean oil. However, opening calls were 3-5 cents lower.

 

With a potential trade deal with China and a biodiesel tax credit, “trend-following traders have been actively covering their positions,” The Hightower Report said. Analysts there said January soybean closed “at a precarious level of $8.90 ½ … A close above this level potentially projects to $9.82,” with “plenty of hedge selling” on the way up.

 

Exports: Net sales of 628,800 MT for 2018-19 in the week ended Nov. 22 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 50 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

Wheat

 

Chicago March wheat “continues to coil, hinting to break out to the downside but not finding enough selling interest,” The Hightower Report said.

 

Many winter wheat farmers are putting their drills away this week or did that last week, said Richard Plackemeier of CHS Hedging. Also, hard red winter wheat “needs a break in rail rates to export markets to be competitive.”

 

Exports: In the week ended Nov. 22, net sales of 377,100 MT for 2018-19 were up 14 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior four-week average, USDA said.

 

marketwatchonline.com