In this file:
· Swine fever effects may lift China demand for beef
· Swine fever outbreak in China tipped to boost beef demand
· Beef prices in China hit record highs
Swine fever effects may lift China demand for beef
By Sally Rae, Rural Life (New Zealand)
29 November 2018
The continuing spread of African swine fever through China’s pig population has the potential to reshape global beef markets, Rabobank’s latest beef quarterly report says.
There had been more than 60 confirmed cases up to November 19, scattered across all the major pork-producing provinces and resulting in increased slaughter, transport bans and volatile prices.
While the majority of cases involved small-sized farms, several larger-scale farms had also been affected.
"Given the sheer size of production and the fragmented structure, it will be a great challenge for China to control the disease in the coming year," the report said.
Rabobank Dunedin-based animal proteins analyst Blake Holgate said Chinese pork consumption was expected to drop, giving rise to increases in the consumption and importing of other animal proteins, including eggs, poultry, beef, mutton and seafood.
Poultry would probably benefit the most as it was already the major substitute for pork, particularly in meat processing and catering, the report said.
While beef was not a major substitute, the pork supply shortage in China would likely push up consumption.
"Given China is already an important and growing importer of beef, depending on how pork production and prices develop, there could be increased demand from China for beef imports over the coming months," Mr Holgate said.
New Zealand beef prices had dropped consistently since mid-September on declining demand from the United States.
Rabobank expected prices to face further downward pressure for the remainder of the year and into early 2019 as the New Zealand cattle slaughter began to gain pace against the backdrop of weaker US demand.
To limit the extent of any price declines...
Swine fever outbreak in China tipped to boost beef demand
Everard Himmelreich, The Standard (Australia)
November 28 2018
The outbreak of African swine fever in China has the potential to affect the Australian beef trade, according to a Rabobank beef report.
The report by Rabobank analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said the swine fever was expected to reduce China’s pork consumption and increase its consumption of other animal proteins such as beef, mutton, eggs, poultry and seafood.
“Although beef is not a major substitute for pork, the pork supply shortage in China will likely also push up beef consumption,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.
He said depending on how pork production and prices develop, there could be increased demand from China for beef imports over the coming months.
Beef prices in China hit record highs
by Beef Central (Australia)
28 November 2018
THE Chinese beef market continues to perform strongly, with prices at their highest point in the past three years, and close to 15-year highs, as a result of growing demand for red meat and impacts caused by the spread of African Swine Fever in the country’s pig population.
The tight supply relative to steadily growing demand is the major cause for the strong price, Rabobank suggests in its latest Beef Quarterly review.
African Swine Fever was another factor (see further commentary below), as some Chinese consumers have reduced pork consumption over food safety concerns and increased their consumption of other proteins, Rabo’s report says.
China’s Statistics Bureau has released agricultural data of the first three quarters of 2018, with domestic beef production increasing by 0.6 percent year-on-year, while the country’s beef cattle inventory decreased by 0.2pc year-on-year, creating an expectation of lower domestic production in the coming year.
“Driven by high prices, beef farmers tend to shorten the fattening time, causing average carcase weights to decline,” Rabo said.
In the first nine months of 2018, China’s official beef imports increased by 40pc year-on-year, reaching 456,000 tonnes. Strong domestic demand and tight local supply are believed to be driving up imports. The decline in grey channel trade as a result of stricter inspections on the borders may also be a factor, Rabo said.
Entering 2018, China granted access to a number of European beef exporting countries, including Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark, France and the UK, to export frozen beef to China.
“French beef was heavily promoted at the recent China International Import Expo, indicating an ambition to enter China’s market,” Rabo said.
The Expo also highlighted the increasingly important role played by e-commerce. During the Expo, JBS and Win-Chain, Alibaba Group’s global sourcing company, signed an A$2.1 billion meat supply deal for the coming three years.
A portion of the imports is believed to be directly targeted to online shopping, with the rest competing in the B2B market, leveraged by comprehensive services including cold chain logistics and supply chain management provided by e-commerce players.
African swine fever to impact global meat trade ...
Three scenarios for China ...
Europe – impact limited ...
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